III. Пуская пузыри
1 Эта тема хорошо изучена, из недавних работ надо отметить Timothy Guinnane, Ron Harris, Naomi R. Lamoreaux, and Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, Putting the Corporation in its Place’, NBER Working Paper 13109 (5/2007).
2 См. особенно: Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance (2nd edn., Princeton, 2005).
3 Cm.: Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (3rd edn., New York / Chichester / Brisbane / Toronto / Singapore, 1996). Pp. 12–16. В своей работе Киндлебергер отдает должное революционным наработкам Хаймана Мински. Две ключевые работы последнего: Hyman Р. Minsky, ‘Longer Waves in Financial Relations: Financial Factors in the More Severe Depressions’, American Economic Review, 54, 3 (5/1964). Pp. 324–335; ‘Financial Instability Revisited: The Economics of Disaster’, in Hyman P. Minsky (ed.), Inflation, Recession and Economic Policy (Brighton, 1982). Pp. 117–161.
4 Kindleberger, Manias. P 14.
5 ‘The Death of Equities’, Business Week, 13/8/1979.
6 ‘Dow 36,000’, Business Week, 27/9/1999.
7 William N. Goetzmann and Philippe Jorion, ‘Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century’, Journal of Finance, 54, 3 (6/1999). Pp. 953–980.
8 Jeremy J. Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies (New York, 2000).
9 Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Stanton, Triumph of the Optimists: loi Years of Global Investment Returns (Princeton, 2002).
10 Paul Frentrop, A History of Corporate Governance 1602–2002 (Brussels, 2003). Pp. 49–51.
11 Ronald Findlay and Kevin H. O’Rourke, Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium (Princeton, 2007). P. 178.
12 Frentrop, Corporate Governance. P 59.
13 О противоречиях, которыми изобиловала Голландская республика в эпоху господства капитализма и кальвинизма, писал Саймон Шама в своей книге The Embarrassment of Riches: An Interpretation of Dutch Culture in the Golden Age (New York, 1997 [1987]).
14 John P. Shelton, The First Printed Share Certificate: An Important Link in Financial History’, Business History Review, 39, 3 (Autumn 1965). P 396.
15 Shelton, ‘First Printed Share Certificate’. P 400.
16 Engel Sluiter, ‘Dutch Maritime Power and the Colonial Status Quo, 1585–1641’, Pacific Historical Review, 11, 1 (March 1942). P 33.
17 Ibid., p. 34.
18 Frentrop, Corporate Governance. P 69.
19 Larry Neal, ‘Venture Shares of the Dutch East India Company’, in William N. Goetzmann and K. Geert Rouwenhorst (eds.), The Origins of Value: The Financial Innovations that Created Modern Capital Markets (Oxford, 2005). P 167.
20 Neal, ‘Venture Shares’. P. 169.
21 Schama, Embarrassment of Riches. P 349.
22 Ibid., p. 339.
23 Neal, ‘Venture Shares’ P 169.
24 Frentrop, Corporate Governance. P 85.
25 Ibid., p. 95.
26 Ibid., p.103. См. также Neal, ‘Venture Shares’. P 171.
27 Neal, ‘Venture Shares’. P. 166.
28 Findlay and O’Rourke, Power and Plenty. P. 178.
29 Ibid., p. 179–183. См также: Sluiter, ‘Dutch Maritime Power’. P. 32.
30 Findlay and O’Rourke, Power and Plenty. P. 208.
31 Femme S. Gaastra, ‘War, Competition and Collaboration: Relations between the English and Dutch East India Company in the Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries’, in H. V Bowen, Margarette Lincoln and Nigel Ribgy (eds.), The Worlds of the East India Company (Leicester, 2002). P. 51.
32 Gaastra, ‘War, Competition and Collaboration’. P. 58.
33 Ann M. Carlos and Stephen Nicholas, ‘«Giants of an Earlier Capitalism»: The Chartered Trading Companies as Modern Multinationals’, Business History Review, 62, 3 (Autumn 1988). Pp. 398–419.
34 Gaastra, ‘War, Competition and Collaboration’. P. 51.
35 Findlay and O’Rourke, Power and Plenty. P. 183.
36 Ibid., p. 185, figure 4.5.
37 Gaastra, ‘War, Competition and Collaboration’. P. 55.
38 Jan de Vries and A. van der Woude, The First Modern Economy: Success, Failure and Perseverance of the Dutch Economy, 1500–1815 (Cambridge, 1997). P. 396.
39 Andrew McFarland Davis, ‘An Historical Study of Taw’s System’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1, 3 (April 1887). P. 292.
40 H. Montgomery Hyde, John Law: The History of an Honest Adventurer (Fondon, 1969). P. 83.
41 Earl J. Hamilton, Trices and Wages at Paris under John Faw’s System’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51, 1 (November 1936). P. 43.
42 Davis, ‘Faw’s System’. P. 300.
43 Ibid., p. 305.
44 Thomas E. Kaiser, ‘Money, Despotism, and Public Opinion in Early Eighteenth-Century Finance: John Faw and the Debate on Royal Credit’, Journal of Modern History, 63, 1 (March 1991). P. 6.
45 Max J. Wasserman and Frank H. Beach, ‘Some Neglected Monetary Theories of John Faw’, American Economic Review, 24,4 (December 1934). P. 653.
46 James Macdonald, A Free Nation Deep in Debt: The Financial Roots of Democracy (New York, 2003). P. 192.
47 Kaiser, ‘Money’. P. 12.
48 Ibid., p. 18.
49 Hamilton, ‘Prices and Wages’. P. 47.
50 Davis, ‘Faw’s System’. P. 317.
51 Antoin E. Murphy, John Law: Economic Theorist and Policy-Maker (Oxford, 1997). P. 233.
52 Hamilton, ‘Prices and Wages’. P. 55.
53 Murphy, John Law. P. 201.
54 Ibid., p. 190.
55 Cm.: Tarry Neal, The Rise of Financial Capitalism: International Capital Markets in the Age of Reason (Cambridge, 1990). P. 74.
56 Kaiser, ‘Money’. P. 22.
57 О том, как английские спекулянты бежали из Парижа в ноябре и декабре, рассказывает Ларри Нил: Financial Capitalism. Р. 68.
58 Murphy, John Law. P. 213.
59 Ibid., p. 205.
60 Lord Wharncliffe (ed.), The Letters and Works of Lady Mary Wortley Montagu (Paris, 1837). P. 321.
61 Earl J. Hamilton, ‘John Law of Lauriston: Banker, Gamester, Merchant, Chief?’, American Economic Review, 57, 2 (May 1967). P. 273.
62 Murphy, John Law. Pp. 201–202.
63 Hamilton, ‘John Law’. P. 276.
64 Murphy, John Law. P. 239. См. также: Hamilton, ‘Prices and Wages’. P. 60.
65 Kaiser, ‘Money’. Pp. 16, 20.
66 Ibid., p. 22.
67 Murphy, John Law. P. 235.
68 Ibid., p. 250.
69 Hyde, Law. P. 159.
70 Schama, Embarrassment of Riches. Pp. 366ff.
71 Ibid., pp. 367!!.
72 По-разному раскрывают эту историю работы: Neal, Financial Capitalism. P. 89–117; Edward Chancellor, Devil Take the Hindmost; A History of Financial Speculation (London, 1999). Pp. 58–95.
73 Chancellor, Devil Take the Hindmost. P. 64.
74 Ibid., p. 84.
75 Neal, Financial Capitalism. Pp.. 90, liiff. Как заметил Нил, инвестор, который приобрел бы акции компании Южных морей в начале 1720-го и продал их в конце того же года, получил бы 56 % годовых (даже с учетом лопнувшего пузыря).
76 Julian Hoppitt, The Myths of the South Sea Bubble’, Transactions of the Royal Historical Society, 12 (2002). Pp. 141–165.
77 Tom Nicholas, ‘Trouble with a Bubble’, Harvard Business School Case N9-807-146 (28.2.2007). P. 1.
78 William L. Silber, When Washington Shut Down Wall Street: The Great Financial Crisis of 1914 and the Origins of America's Monet-ary Supremacy (Princeton, 2006).
79 Niall Ferguson, ‘Political Risk and the International Bond Market between the 1848 Revolution and the Outbreak of the First World War’, Economic History Review, 59, 1 (February 2006). Pp. 70-112.
80 New York Times, 23.10.1929.
81 Nicholas, Trouble with a Bubble’. P. 4.
82 Ibid., p. 6.
83 Chancellor, Devil Take the Hindmost. Pp. 199H.
84 Cm.: Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton, 1963). P. 299–419. Главу “Великое сжатие” следует внести в списки обязательной литературы для всех практиков финансового дела.
85 Ibid., р. 309. Прочитайте сноску, и вам станет ясно, почему ФРС незамедлительно вмешалась и позволила JP Morgan купить Bear Stearns в марте 2007 года.
86 Ibid., р. 315.
87 Ibid., р. 317.
88 Ibid., р. 396.
89 Ibid., р. 325.
90 Ibid., р. 328.
91 US Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970 (Washington, DC, 1975). P. 1019.
92 Barry Eichengreen, Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939 (New York / Oxford, 1992). См. его же статью: The Origins and Nature of the Great Slump Revisited’, Economic History Review, 45, 2 (May 1992). Pp. 213–239.
93 См., к примеру: Ben S. Bernanke, The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach’, NBER Working Paper 4814 (August 1994).
94 Hyman P. Minsky, ‘Introduction: Can «It» Happen Again? A Reprise’, in idem (ed.), Inflation, Recession and Economic Policy (Brighton, 1982). P. xi.
95 Индекс падал на 10 % и больше по итогам 23 из 113 лет его существования.
96 См.: Nicholas Brady, James С Cotting, Robert G. Kirby, John R. Opel and Howard M. Stein, Report of the Presidential Task Force on Market Mechanisms, submitted to the President of the United States, the Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board (Washington, DC, January 1988). Внимание историка привлекает сравнение с 1929 годом; см.: приложение VIII. Рр. 1-13.
97 James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg, The Great Reckoning: How the World Will Change in the Depression of the 1990*s (London, 1991).
98 Развитие событий как оно виделось самому Гриспену, описано в его автобиографии: The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World (New York, 2007). Pp. 100–110.
99 Greenspan, Age of Turbulence’. Pp. 166.
100 Ibid., pp. 167.
101 Ibid., pp. 190–195.
102 Ibid., pp. 20off.
103 Детальный анализ содержится в книге: Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind, The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron (New York, 2003).
104 Ibid., p. 55.
105 Уоткинс рассказывает об этом в книге: Mimi Swartz and Sherron Watkins, Power Failure: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Enron (New York, 2003).
