«Aggregative Contingent Estimation», Office of the Director of National Intelligence (IARPA), 2014, Web.

Разобраться в тонкостях проекта «Здравое суждение» мне помогли следующие материалы: Barbara Mellers et al., «Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament», Psychological Science 25, № 5 (2014): 1106-15; Daniel Kahneman, «How to Win at Forecasting: A Conversation with Philip Tetlock», Edge, 6/12/2012, https://edge.org/conversation/ how-to-win-at-forecasting; Michael D. Lee, Mark Steyvers, Brent Miller, «A Cognitive Model for Aggregating People’s Rankings», PloS One 9, № 5 (2014); Lyle Ungar et al., «The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test» (2012); Philip Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2005); Jonathan Baron et al., «Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme», Decision Analysis 11, № 2 (2014): 133-45; Philip E. Tetlock et al., «Forecasting Tournaments Tools for Increasing Transparency and Improving the Quality of Debate», Current Directions in Psychological Science 23, № 4 (2014): 290-95; David Ignatius, «More Chatter than Needed», The Washington Post, 1/11/2013; Alex Madrigal, «How to Get Better at Predicting the Future», The Atlantic, 11/12/2012; Warnaar et al., «Aggregative Contingent Estimation System»; Uriel Haran, Ilana Ritov, Barbara A. Mellers, «The Role of Actively Open-Minded Thinking in Information Acquisition, Accuracy, and Calibration», Judgment and Decision Making 8, № 3 (2013): 188–201; David Brooks, «Forecasting Fox», The New York Times, 21/03/2013; Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner, Seeing Further (New York: Random House, 2015).