Библиография
Введение. Непостоянство
Anderson, Jonathan. “The Globalization Collection.” EM Advisers Group, May 8, 2015.
Baweja, Bhanu. “The Tricks of Trade: A Structural Change?” UBS Research, November 13, 2013.
Booth, Robert. “Education and Skills Have Long-Term Effect on Cities’ Economic Well Being.” Guardian, July 12, 2012.
Burton, Katherine. “Hedge Funds Shut at Fastest Pace Since 2009 on Poor Performance.” Bloomberg News, December 2, 2014.
Cates, Andrew, Bhanu Baweja, and Sophie Constable. “Globalization’s Challenges.” UBS Research, July 22, 2015.
Clark, David. “The Forward March of Democracy Halted? World Politics and the Rise of Authoritarianism.” Henry Jackson Society, 2015.
Cookson, Clive, and Tyler Shendruk. “Animal Energetics: The Price of the Hunt.” Financial Times, October 10, 2014.
Davis, Ned. “Using Crowd Psychology and the Stock Market to Call the Economy.” Ned Davis Research, November 14, 2014.
Donnan, Shawn. “IMF and World Bank Warn of ‘Peak Trade.’” Financial Times, November 18, 2014.
Donnan, Shawn. “Peak Trade and China’s Role in Five Charts.” Financial Times, November 19, 2014.
“Economics Needs to Reflect a Post-Crisis World.” Financial Times, September 25, 2014.
Fayad, Ghada, and Roberto Perrelli. “Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets – An Empirical Investigation.” International Monetary Fund, Working Paper no. 14/173, September 17, 2014.
Fordham, Tina M. “Taking It to the Street.” Citigroup Research, May 2014.
Galston, William. “Modern Autocrats Are on the March.” Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2015.
Garman, Christopher, and Jonathan Dill. “Reform Tracker.” Eurasia Group, October 2014.
Grene, Sophia. “Nouriel Roubini: Dr. Doom Condemns Cute Investment Labels.” Financial Times, July 26, 2015.
Hanushek, Eric A., and Ludger Woessmann. “Education and Economic Growth.” In Economics of Education. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2010.
Ignatius, David. “Hope for Democracy in the Arab World.” Washington Post, August 9 2013.
“The Increasing Importance of Developing Countries in the Global Economy.” World Trade Report, 2014.
Jerven, Morten, and Magnus Ebo Duncan. “Revising GDP Estimates in SubSaharan Africa: Lessons from Ghana.” African Statistical Journal 15 (August 2012).
Kaletsky, Anatole. “Wrong, INET?” The Economist, November 22, 2010. Kennedy, Robert. “Is a ‘Human Population Bomb” Ticking.” Al Jazeera, June 12, 2012.
Kurlantzick, Joshua. “The Great Deglobalizing.” Boston Globe, February 1, 2015.
Lagon, Mark P. and Arch Puddington. “Democracy Takes a Global Hit.” Wall Street Journal, January 27, 2016.
Lu, Ming, Zhao Chen, Yongqin Wang, Yan Zhang, Yuan Zhang, and Changyuan Lao. China’s Economic Development: Institutions, Growth and Imbalances. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2013.
Lund, Susan, et al. “Financial Globalization: Retreat or Reset?” McKinsey Global Institute, March 2013.
Manyika, James, et al. “Global Growth: Can Productivity Save the Day in an Aging World?” McKinsey Global Institute, January 2015.
Mauboussin, Michael J., and Dan Callahan. “Learning from Freestyle Chess.” Credit Suisse Research, September 10, 2014.
Miller, Arthur. “The Year It Came Apart.” New York, Dececember 30, 1974. O’Neill, Jim. “Building Better Global Economic BRICs.” Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper no. 66, November 30, 2001.
Peters, Heiko, and Stefan Schneider. “Sluggish Global Trade – Cyclical or Structural?” Deutsche Bank Research, November 25, 2014.
“Picking Apart the Productivity Paradox,” Goldman Sachs Research, October 5, 2015.
Schofield, Mark. “Global Strategy and Macro Group Theme Book.” Citigroup Research, April 2015.
Sharma, Ruchir. “Going In for the Big Kill.” Newsweek, October 2, 2006.
Sharma, Ruchir. “Can India Still Be a Breakout Nation.” Economic Times, December 10, 2012.
Sharma, Ruchir. “The Ever-Emerging Markets: Why Economic Forecasts Fail.” Foreign Affairs 93, no. 1 (2014).
Sharma, Ruchir. “China’s Stock Plunge Is Scarier Than Greece.” Wall Street Journal, July 7, 2015.
Studwell, Joe. How Asia Works: Success and Failure in the World’s Most Dynamic Region. New York: Grove, 2013.
Surowiecki, James. The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations. New York: Doubleday, 2004.
Tilton, Andrew. “Still Wading Through ‘Great Stagnations.’” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, September 17, 2014.
Tilton, Andrew. “Growth Recovery and Trade Stagnation Evidence from New Data.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, June 5, 2015.
Vogel, Ezra. Japan as Number One: Lessons for America. New York: Harper & Row, 1979.
“What Is the Trade Slowdown Telling Us?” Gavekal Research, September 30, 2015.
Wu, Harry. “China’s Growth and Productivity Performance Debate Revisited – Accounting for China’s Sources of Growth with a New Data Set.” The Conference Board, Report no. EPWP1401, February 2014.
Zurayk, Rami. “Use Your Loaf: Why Food Prices Are Crucial in the Arab Spring.” The Guardian 16 July 2011: n. pag. Print.
Глава 1. Человеческий фактор
Abramson, David. “Accelerating Wage Growth – Should We Be Worried?” BCA Research, May 11, 2015.
Acemoglu, Daron, and David Autor. “What Does Human Capital Do?” Journal of Economic Literature 50, no. 2 (2012): 426–63.
Adams, Tim. “And the Pulitzer Goes to.. a Computer.” Guardian, June 28, 2015.
Aghion, Philippe, Alberto Alesina, and Francesco Trebbi. “Democracy, Technology, and Growth.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 13180, June 2007.
Alderman, Liz. “In Europe, Fake Jobs Can Have Real Benefits.” New York Times, May 29, 2015.
Anderson, Jonathan. “Institutional Winners and Losers.” EM Advisers Group, December 18, 2014.
Anderson, Jonathan. “How to Think About China.” EM Advisers Group, February 5, 2015. Anderson, Thomas M., and Hans-Peter Kohler. “Demographic Transition Revisited: Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity.” Population Studies Center, Working Paper, May 15, 2015.
Andreessen, Marc. “This Is Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots Will Eat All the Jobs.” Blog.pmarca.com, June 13, 2014.
Andrews, Nick. “Being Polish.” Gavekal Dragoomics, July 17, 2014.
Aoki, Dajia. “Can Japan Overcome Decline in Labor Force.” UBS Research, August 6, 2015.
“Asia’s New Family Values.” Economist, August 22, 2015.
Bandhari, Pranjal. “The Camel, the Tent and Reforms.” Live Mint, October 7, 2015.
Berezin, Peter. “The End of Europe’s Welfare State.” BCA Research, June 26, 2015.
Bernstein, Jared. “Before Blaming the Robots, Let’s Get the Policy Right.” New York Times, February 17, 2014.
Brooks, Rob. “China’s Biggest Problem? Too Many Men.” CNN, March 4, 2013. Butler, William. “Women in the Economy: Global Growth Generators.” Citigroup Research, May 2015.
Cates, Andrew, Bhanu Baweja, and Sophie Constable. “Globalization’s Challenges.” UBS Research, July 21, 2015.
Chatterji, Aaron, Edward Glaeser, and William Kerr. “Clusters of Entrepreneurship and Innovation.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 19013, May 2013.
Chaudhary, Latika, Aldo Musacchio, Steven Nafziger, and Se Yan. “Big BRICs, Weak Foundations: The Beginning of Public Elementary Education in Brazil, Russia, India, and China.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 17852, February 2012.
Credit Suisse Demographic Research, n.d.
Czaika, Mathias, and Christopher Parsons. “The Gravity of High-Skilled Migration Policies.” International Migration Institute, May 21, 2015.
“Dominant and Dangerous.” Economist, October 3, 2015.
Eberstadt, Nicholas. “The Demographic Future: What Population Growth – and Decline – Means for the Economy.” Foreign Affairs, November 1, 2010.
Fatima, Ambreen, and Humera Sultana. “Tracing Out the U-Shape Relationship Between Famale Labor Force Participation Rate and Economic Development for Pakistan.” International Journal of Social Economics 36, nos. 1–2 (2009): 182–98.
Fernandes, Sharon. “India, Second Biggest Loser of Rich Citizens.” Times of India, July 14, 2015.
Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Compensation.” Oxford Martin School, September 17, 2013).
Fulwood, Alice, and Edward Teather. “Malaysia by the Numbers.” UBS Research, October 2015.
Garland, Kris. “Demographics Matter.” Strategas, September 22, 2015.
“Gary Marcus on the Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Brain.” Hosted by Russ Roberts. Library of Economics and Liberty, December 15, 2014.
Gibbs, Richard. “The Momentum of Migration.” Macquarie Research, December 3, 2014.
Gibbs, Richard. “Global Intuition: Maximizing Migration Trends.” Macquarie Research, March 5, 2015.
Gladstone, Rick. “India Will Be Most Populous Country Sooner Than Thought.” New York Times, July 29, 2015.
“Global Demographics and Labor Force Trends, Global Value, Earnings Quality, MBS, Construction Activity.” Ned Davis Research, November 19, 2015.
Golub, Jonathan. “Demographics to Drive Slower Growth, Higher Stocks.” RBC Capital Markets Research, July 27, 2015.
Gonzales, Christian, et al. “Fair Play: More Equal Laws Boost Female Labor Force Participation.” International Monetary Fund, February 23, 2015.
Goodhart, Charles. “Latin America: What Your Peers Are Reading.” Morgan Stanley Research, September 15, 2015.
Grey, C. G. P. Humans Need Not Apply (film). 2014.
Grindal, Alejandra, and Patrick Ayers. “Why Demographics Matter.” Ned Davis Research, July 23, 2015.
Gupta, Shekhar. “Modi and the Art of the Sell.” Indian Express, December 18, 2012.
Haberman, Clyde. “The Unrealized Horrors of Population Explosion.” New York Times, May 31, 2015.
Harari, Yuval Noah, and Daniel Kahneman. “Death Is Optional.” Edge, November 25, 2015.
Hausmann, Ricardo. “The Tacit-Knowledge Economy.” Project Syndicate, October 30, 2013.
Hessler, Peter. “Learning to Speak Lingerie.” New Yorker, August 10, 2015.
Hokenson, Richard F. “Retiring the Current Model of Retirement.” Hokenson Research, March 2004.
Hokenson, Richard F. “Rethinking Old Age Economic Security.” Evercore ISI Research, July 30, 2015.
Hokenson, Richard F. “Long Term Unemployment: A Global Perspective.” Evercore ISI Research, August 18, 2015.
Hokenson, Richard F. “The European Refugee Predicament.” Evercore ISI Research, September 17, 2015.
Hopper, Tristin. “A History of the Baby Bonus: Tories Now Tout Benefits of Program They Once Axed.” National Post, July 13, 2015.
Ip, Greg. “Economy’s Supply Side Sputters.” Wall Street Journal, February 18, 2015.
Jain, Tanvee Gupta. “Thank You, Overseas Indians.” Macquarie Research, December 2, 2013.
Kapur, Ajay Singh. “China – Accumulating Risks, Caveat Emptor.” Bank of America Research, May 27, 2015.
Kennedy, Robert. “Is a Human Population Bomb Ticking?” Al Jazeera, June 12, 2012.
Khosla, Vinod. “How to Win at Leapfrog.” McKinsey & Company, December 2013.
Kim, Jim Young. “CNBC Excerpts: CNBC’s Sara Eisen Speaks with World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim on CNBC’s ‘Squawk Alley’ Today.” Transcript of interview by Sara Eisen. CNBC, October 1 2015.
Kochhar, Kalpana, et al. India’s Pattern of Development: What Happened, What Follows? International Monetary Fund, 2006.
Last, Jonathan V. “America’s Baby Bust.” Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2013.
Last, Jonathan V. What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster. New York: Encounter Books, 2013.
Lau, Kinger. “Why Korea Will Continue to Outperform Taiwan.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, September 10, 2012.
Laurent, Clint. “India – The Young and the Restless.” Macquarie Research, September 18, 2015.
Lawson, Nigel. “Apocalypse Later.” Wall Street Journal, July 27, 2015.
Lochner, Lance. “Non-Production Benefits of Education: Crime, Health, and Good Citizenship.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 16722, January 2011.
Lubas, Amy, and Veneta Dmitrova. “Is Dwindling Productivity Here to Stay?” Ned Davis Research, May 14, 2015.
Mackie, David. “Euro Area Population, Participation, and Slack.” JP Morgan Research, November 21, 2014.
Magaziner, Daniel, and Sean Jacobs. “South Africa Turns on Its Immigrants.” New York Times, April 24, 2015.
“Malaysia’s Misguided Immigration Policy.” Foreign Policy Associations, 2011. Markoff, John. “The Next Wave.” Edge, July 16, 2015.
Markus, Andrew. “Attitudes to Immigration and Cultural Diversity in Australia.” Journal of Sociology 50, no. 1 (2014): 10–22.
Mason, Andrew. “Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developing and Developed Countries.” United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, August 31–September 2, 2005.
Meeker, Mary. “Internet Trends: Morgan Stanley Executive Women’s Conference.” Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers, October 1, 2013.
Minder, Raphael. “Car Factories Offer Hope for Spanish Industry and Workers.” New York Times, December 27, 2012.
Nair, Prashant. “Indian Pharma in a Global Context.” Citigroup Research, August 14, 2013.
Ninan, T. N. “Only ‘Above Average.’” Business Standard, July 25, 2014. “No Country for Old Men.” Economist, January 10, 2015.
Noronha, João. “Brazil Strategy: Navigating Turbulent Times.” Santander Research, August 12, 2015.
O’Hare, Maureen. “Danish Moms Urged to Send Their Kids on Baby-making Vacations.” CNN, October 1, 2015.
Ozden, Caglar, and Mathis Warner. “Immigrants versus Natives? Displacement and Job Creation.” World Bank, 2014.
Patel, Raj. “The End of Plenty Review.” New York Times, July 24, 2015. Pathiparampil, Bino. “India-Pharma: US Market Remains a Great Opportunity.” IIFL Institutional Equities, 2013.
Pearson, Charles. On the Cusp: From Population Boom to Bust. New York: Oxford University Press, 2015.
“Picking Apart the Productivity Paradox.” Goldman Sachs, Global Macro Research, October 5, 2015).
“PISA Scores: Why Would You Invest in Greece Instead of Poland?” Renaissance Capital, December 4, 2013.
Redenius, Jeremy. “The Challenges to Feeding the World May Not Be So Challenging After All.” Bernstein Research, December 6, 2013.
Redman, Alex. “Latin America in 2015: The Most Challenged Emerging Market Region.” Credit Suisse Research, March 9, 2015.
Roberts, Russ. Gary Marcus on the Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Brain. Library of Economics and Liberty, 2014.
Robertson, Charles. “What’s Wrong with Russia.” Renaissance Capital, January 24, 2013.
Rotman, David. “How Technology Is Destroying Jobs.” MIT Technology Review, June 12, 2013.
Roy, Amlan. “Indonesia: Are Good Demographics Adequate for Growth and Investments?” Credit Suisse Demographics Research, March 9, 2015.
Roy, Amlan. “A Perspective on Migration: Past to Present.” Credit Suisse Demographic Research, September 30, 2015.
Salsman, Richard M. “Social Security Is Much Worse Than a Ponzi Scheme – and Here’s How to End It.” Forbes, September 27, 2011.
Saltar, Daniel. “The Focal Point: New Russia – New Focus.” Renaissance Capital, October 21, 2013.
Schneider, Jim, et al. “Fortnightly Answers Questions: Where Is Everybody Going?” Goldman Sachs Research, September 3, 2015.
Shedlock, Michael. “47 % of Chinese Billionaires Want to Leave China Within 5 Years.” Financial Sense, September 5, 2014.
Stephen, Craig. “Rich Chinese Line Up to Leave China.” Market Watch, February 9, 2014.
Stephens, Bret. “Nobels and National Greatness.” Wall Street Journal, October 14, 2013.
Tabuchi, Hiroko. “Sony’s Bread and Butter? It’s Not Electronics.” New York Times, May 27, 2013.
Tiglao, Rigoberto. “PH Has Highest Fertility Rate in Our Region.” Manila Times, April 8, 2014.
Toohey, Tim, and Andrew Boak. “Population: Cutting Potential Growth; Forecasting Housing Surplus.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, April 15, 2015.
Verme, Paolo. “Economic Development and Female Labor Participation in the Middle East and North Africa: A Test of the U-Shape Hypothesis.” World Bank, 2014.
Wan, Fan Cheuk, and Alexander Redman. “Asian Family Business Report 2011.” Credit Suisse Research, October 2011.
Weafer, Chris, and Mark Adomanis. “Special Report – Demographics.” MacroAdvisory, January 2015.
Weir, Fred. “Russia Needs Immigrants, But Can It Accept Them?” Christian Science Monitor, October 27, 2013.
“Women, Business, and the Law 2014.” World Bank, n.d.
Yadav, Gaurav. “Indonesia’s Industrialization.” Bank of America Research, January 21, 2015.
Yeoh, Brenda, and Weigan Lin. “Rapid Growth in Singapore’s Immigrant Population Brings Policy Challenges.” Migration Policy, 2007.
Yin, David. “Singapore Needs Immigrants, Says Jim Rogers.” Forbes Asia, June 6, 2013.
Глава 2. Круговорот жизни
“2014 EM Elections Update.” Morgan Stanley Research, December 2013. Acemoglu, Daron. “Development Won’t Ensure Democracy in Turkey.” New York Times, June 2013.
Acemoglu, Daron, and James Robinson. “Economics Versus Politics: Pitfalls of Policy Advice.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 18921, March 2013.
Aghion, Philippe, Alberto Alessina, and Francesco Trebbi. “Democracy, Technology, and Growth.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 13180, June 2007.
Alexiadou, Despina, and Hakan Gunaydin. “The Politics of Economic Adjustment: Technocratic Appointments and Representation in Economically Advanced Parliamentary Democracies.” EPSA Conference, University of Pittsburgh, 2013.
Anderson, Jonathan. “One Hell of an Argentina Rally.” EM Advisors Group, April 2015.
“Argentina’s Economy: The Austerity Diet” Economist, August 23, 2001.
Baweja, Bhanu. “The Weakest Link in EM.” UBS Research, December 2014.
Burke, Paul, and Andrew Leigh. “Do Output Contracts Trigger Democratic Change?” Institute for the Study of Labor, 2010.
Cardoso, Eliana, and Vladimir Kuhl Teles. “A Brief History of Brazil’s Growth.” Getulio Vargas Foundation, 2010.
Crockett, David. “The Contemporary Presidency: ‘An Excess of Refinement’: Lame Duck Presidents in Constitutional and Historical Context.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 38, no. 4 (2008): 707–21.
Dell, Melissa, Nathan Lane, and Pablo Querubin. “State Capacity, Local Governance, and Economic Development in Vietnam.” National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2015.
Dhune, Sadanand. “Don’t Bet on India to Elect the Thatcherite.” Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2013.
Dhune, Sadanand. “India’s Modi and the Market.” Wall Street Journal, November 21, 2013.
Diamond, Larry. “Facing Up the Democratic Recession.” Journal of Democracy 26, no. 1 (2015): 141–55.
Dill, Jonathan, and Christopher Garman. “Emerging Markets Reform Tracker.” Eurasia Group, October 2014.
“Directional Economics: The Problem with Political Longevity.” Renaissance Capital, August 2013.
Easterly, William. The Tyranny of Experts. New York: Basic Books, 2014.
Easterly, William. “Benevolent Autocrats.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, May 2011.
“Elections in Brazil, India, Indonesia and South Africa in 2014: Potential Catalysts for Market Turnarounds.” Morgan Stanley Research, October 2013.
“EM Monthly: New Voices vs Old Leaders.” Eurasia Group, July 2013. “Emerging Markets: New Phase of Politics Will Lead to More Divergence.” Eurasia Group, November 2012.
Fayad, Ghada, Robert Bates, and Anke Hoeffler. “Income and Democracy: Lipset’s Law Revised.” International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Feteha, Ahmed. “Welcome to Egypt’s Fake Weddings: Get High, Leave Lots of Cash.” Bloomberg News, June 23, 2015.
Freeland, Chrystia. “Some Cracks in the Cult of Technocrats.” New York Times, May 23, 2013.
Friedman, Thomas. “The Other Arab Awakening.” New York Times, November 30, 2013.
Fry, Richard, and Rakesh Kochhar. “America’s Wealth Gap between Middle-Income and Upper-Income Families Is Widest on Record,” Pew Research Center, December 17, 2014.
Fukuyama, Francis. “The Middle Class Revolution.” Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2013.
Fukuyama, Francis. “At the ‘End of History’ Still Stands Democracy.” Wall Street Journal, June 6, 2014.
Garman, Christopher. “New Voices vs. Old Leaders: How the Middle Class Is Reshaping EM Politics.” Eurasia Group, July 2013.
Garman, Christopher. “Emerging Markets Strategy.” Eurasia Group, November 2014.
Global Emerging Markets Equity Team. “Tales from the Emerging World: The Myths of Middle-Class Revolution.” Morgan Stanley Investment Management. July 16, 2013.
Goldstone, Jack. “Understanding the Revolutions of 2011.” Foreign Affairs, May – June 2011.
Greenspan, Alan. “Never Saw It Coming.” Foreign Affairs, November – December 2013.
Guha, Ramachandra. “A Strongman Is Not the Solution to India’s Troubles.” Financial Times, November 17, 2013.
Giuliano, Paola, Prachi Mishra, and Antonio Spilimbergo. “Democracy and Reforms: Evidence from a New Dataset.” International Monetary Fund Working Paper, July 2010.
Hellevig, Jon. “Aware Group Research on the Effects of Putin’s Tax Reforms.” Awara Group Research, April 2014.
Iyigun, Murat, and Dani Rodrik. “On the Efficacy of Reforms: Policy Tinkering, Institutional Change, and Entrepreneurship.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 10455, April 2004.
Klein, Ezra. “The Protests in Turkey, Brazil, and Egypt Shouldn’t Surprise You.” Washington Post, July 2, 2013.
Lagon, Mark P., and Arch Puddington. “Democracy Takes a Global Hit.” Wall Street Journal, January 27, 2016.
Laidler, Ben. “LatAm Strategy – Interesting Charts.” HSBC Research, June 2014.
Lansberg-Rodriguez, Daniel. “Latin America Is a Region Plagued by Incumbents.” Financial Times, October 15, 2014.
Matekja, Mislav. “Europe Year Ahead 2013.” JP Morgan Research, December 3, 2012.
Mian, Atif R., Amir Sufi, and Francesco Trebbi. “Resolving Debt Overhang: Political Constraints in the Aftermath of Financial Crisis.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 17831, February 2012.
Mithcell, Daniel. “Russia’s Flat Tax Miracle.” Heritage Foundation, March 2003.
Mousavizadeh, Nader. “The Presence of Leadership.” New York Times, March 2, 2013.
Naqvi, Saeed. “A Little Left of Self Interest.” Friday Times, June 26, 2015. Page, Jeremy. “China Spins New Lessons from Soviet Union’s Fall.” Wall Street Journal, December 10, 2013.
Perkins, Dario. “No Italian Renaissance.” Lombard Street Reseach, June 2014. “Peru’s Roaring Economy: Hold On Tight.” Economist, February 2, 2013.
Pilling, David. “China and the Post-Tsunami Spirit Have Revived Japan.” Financial Times, May 8, 2013.
Perkins, Dario. “India’s Modi Fills a Void of Congress Party’s Making.” Financial Times, September 25, 2013.
Polan, Magdalena. “EM Markets: EM Macro Daily.” Goldman Sachs Research, September 12, 2013.
Putin, Vladimir. “Answers to Questions for Participants in the Russian Meetings.” Interview, World Economic Forum, 2001.
“The Quest for Prosperity.” Economist, May 15, 2007.
Rapoza, Kenneth. “Why Lula Was Better for Brazil than Dilma.” Forbes, December 9, 2013.
Rosenberg, Mark. “African Frontiers: Diverging Political Trajectories Highlight Varying Growth Paths in 2014.” Eurasia Group, 2014.
“Russia: A Smooth Political Transition.” Goldman Sachs Research, October 2007.
Sharma, Ruchir. “Booms, Busts, and Protests – Normal Life in Emerging Countries.” Financial Times, July 1, 2013.
Sharma, Ruchir. “India’s Cycle of Recklessness and Reform.” Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2013.
Smith, Tony. “In Brazil, Chafing at Economic Restraints.” New York Times, March 17, 2004.
“A Strongman Cometh.” JP Morgan Research, November 2012.
Summers, Lawrence. “Second-Term Presidents Cost America 40 Lost Years” Financial Times, August 10, 2014.
Summers, Lawrence. “Bold Reform Is the Only Answer to Secular Stagnation.” Financial Times, September 7, 2014.
“Technocrats – Minds Like Machines.” Economist, November 19, 2011. “Turkey: Business Climate Will Gradually Erode with Erdogan Presidency.” Eurasia Group, July 2014.
“Turkey’s Delight: A Growing Economy.” Bloomberg News, August 31, 2003. “Turkish PM’s Top Aide Says Erdgan One of Only Two World Leaders.” Today’s Zaman, August 29, 2013.
Wang, Zhengxu. “China’s Leadership Succession: New Faces and New Rules of the Game.” European Institute for Security Studies, 2012.
Wolf, Martin. “Legitimate Business Unlocks Mexico’s Growth.” Financial Times, June 3, 2014.
“World of Work Report 2013: Repairing the Economic and Social Fabric.” International Labor Organization, 2013.
Wyatt, Caroline. “Bush and Putin: Best of Friends.” BBC News, June 16, 2001.
Глава 3. Хорошие и плохие миллиардеры
Alderson, Arthur, and Kevin Doran. “How Has Income Inequality Grown.” Indiana University, 2010.
“All Men Are Created Unequal.” Economist, January 7, 2014.
Allegretto, Sylvia A. “The State of Working America’s Wealth.” Economic Policy Institute, 2011.
Anderson, Jon Lee. “The Comandante’s Canal.” New Yorker, March 10, 2014.
Berg, Andrew G., and Jonathan Ostry. “Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin.” International Monetary Fund, 2011.
Chilkoti, Avantika. “India’s Wealthy and How They Spend It.” Financial Times, July 14, 2014.
Da Costa, Pedro Nicolaci. “Stiglitz: Fed’s Zero Rate Policy Boosts Inequality.” Wall Street Journal, June 4, 2015.
Dehejia, Vivek. “Is India’s Rising Billionaire Wealth Bad for the Country?” Reuters, October 30, 2012.
Dhume, Sadanand. “India’s Gilded Distration.” Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2012.
Donovan, Paul. “Inequality in a Time of Crisis.” UBS Research, October 9, 2013.
Ferranti, David De, et al. Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean: Breaking with History? World Bank, 2003.
“Forecasting Inflation: Temporary and Structural Changes Interact.” Citigroup Research, May 14, 2015.
Fry, Richard, and Rakesh Kochhar. “America’s Wealth Gap between Middle-Income and Upper-Income Families Is Widest on Record,” Pew Research Center, December 17, 2014.
Galor, Oded. “Inequality, Human Capital Formation and the Process of Development.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 17058, May 2011.
Glaeser, Edward, and Claudia Goldin. “Corruption and Reform: An Introduction.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 10775, September 2004.
“Global Wealth Report.” Credit Suisse, 2015.
Grant, Will. “Chavez Boosts Food Price Controls.” BBC News, March 4, 2009. Hatzius, Jan. “Better Times for Middle Incomes.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, March 27, 2015.
Jain, Samir. “For the Rich, Investing in Hotels Reap Intangible Gains.” Times Group, January 6, 2015.
“Juan Velasco Alvarado.” Encyclopaedia Britannica.
Lee, Hyun-Hoon, Minsoo Lee, and Donghyun Park. “Growth Policy and Inequality in Developing Asia: Lessons from Korea.” ERIA Discussion Paper 2012–12, July 2012.
Leibbrandt, Murray, Ingrid Woolard, and Arden Finn. “Describing and Decomposing Post-Apartheid Income Inequality in South Africa.” University of Cape Town, 2012.
“Luis Echeverría Alvarez.” Encyclopaedia Britannica.
Malpass, David. “How Big Government Drives Inequality.” Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2014.
Nuzzo, Carmen, Elga Bartsch, Paul Campbell Roberts, and Jessica Alsford. “Sustainable Economics: Mind the Inequality Gap.” Morgan Stanley Research, 2015.
Pani, Marco. “Hold Your Nose and Vote: Why Do Some Democracies Tolerate Corruption?” International Monetary Fund, 2009.
Parks, Ken. “Argentina Moves to Trim Costly Utility Subsidies.” Wall Street Journal, March 27, 2014.
Pikkety, Thomas. Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2013.
“Putin Publicly Humiliates Business Tycoons Solving Social Crisis in Russian Town.” Pravda, June 5, 2009.
Robertson, Charles. “Will Anti-Corruption Legislation Prolong Corruption?” Renaissance Capital, December 5, 2012.
Sharma, Ruchir. “For True Stimulus, Fed Should Drop QE3.” Financial Times, September 10, 2012.
Sharma, Ruchir. “Liberals Love the ‘One Percent.’” Wall Street Journal, July 30, 2014.
Sharma, Ruchir. “What the Billionaires List Tells Us.” Forbes, March 13, 2013.
Stand, D. W. “Why Inequality Keeps Rising: Inequality in Emerging Economies.” Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2011.
Swanson, Ana. “Why Some Billionaires Are Bad for Growth, and Others Aren’t.” Washington Post, August 20, 2015.
Thornhill, John. “Vladimir Putin and His Tsar Quality.” Financial Times, February 6, 2015.
“To Those That Have.” Economist, April 18, 2015.
“Upgrading Long Term Trajectory from Negative to Neutral on Credible Signals of Policy Moderation.” Eurasia Group, July 14, 2015.
Глава 4. Опасности государства
Acemoglu, Daron, Ufuk Akcigit, Nicholas Bloom, and William Kerr. “Innovation, Reallocation, and Growth.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 18993, April 2013.
Acemoglu, Daron, James Robinson, and Thierry Verdier. “Can’t We All Be More Like Scandinavians?” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 18441, October 2012.
Altman, Roger. “Blame Bond Markets, Not Politicians, For Austerity.” Financial Times, May 8, 2013.
Anderlini, Jamil. “China Has Wasted 6.8 Trillion Dollars in Investment.” Reuters, November 27, 2014.
Anderson, Jonathan. “No North African Renaissance.” EM Advisers Group, May 1, 2015.
Aslund, Anders. “How Russia Mismanaged the Financial Crisis.” Moscow Times, February 27, 2013.
Batson, Andrew. “China: Can Reforms Revitalize the Private Sector?” Gavekal Dragonomics, October 16, 2014.
Chang, Ha Joon. “State Owned Enterprise Reform.” United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2007.
Coase, Ronald, and Ning Wang, How China Became Capitalist. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012.
D’Souza, Juliet, William Megginson, and Robert Nash. “The Effects of Changes in Corporate Governance and Restructuring on Operating Performance: Evidence from Privatizations.” Global Finance Journal, 2005.
Ezdi, Asif. “Dealing with Dual Nationality.” News International, November 14, 2014.
Feteha, Ahmed. “Welcome to Egypt’s Fake Weddings: Get High, Leave Lots of Cash.” Bloomberg June 23, 2015.
Gonzalez-Garcia, Jesus, and Francesco Grigoli. “State Owned Banks and Fiscal Discipline.” International Monetary Fund, October 2013.
“Greek Deal Maybe Yes, End-June, But Fundamentals Are Looking Worse Than Ever.” Renaissance Capital, June 15, 2015.
Ha, Eunyoung, and Myung-koo Kang. “Government Responses to Financial Crises: Identifying Patterns and Policy Origins.” World Development, 2014.
Hammer, Joshua. “‘The Full Catastrophe’ by James Angelos.” New York Times, June 19, 2015.
Hassan, Mirza, and Wilson Prichard. “The Political Economy of Tax Reform in Bangladesh: Political Settlements, Informal Institutions, and the Negotiations of Reform.” International Center for Tax and Development, 2013.
“How to Raise China’s Return on Capital.” Dragonomics, December 2013. Jones, Randall, and Satoshi Urasawa. “Sustaining Korea’s Convergence to the Highest Income Countries.” Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2012.
Joshi, Sandeep. “Wiser by Vodafone Verdict, Pranab to Tax Overseas Transactions.” Hindu, March 17, 2012.
Li, Amy. “Premier Li Keqiang Makes Case for Deeper Economic Reforms over Stimulus.” South China Morning Post, May 1, 2014.
Jun Ma, Audrey Shi, and Shan Lan. “Deregulation and Private Sector Growth.” Deutsche Bank Research Report, September 13, 2013.
Matthew, Liz. “Manmohan Singh Should Have Put Foot Down, Cancelled 2G Licenses.” Indian Express, November 8, 2014.
Naim, Moises. “In Brazil, Turkey, and Chile, Protests Follow Economic Success.” Bloomberg News, June 27, 2013.
“New Mediocre.” Lombard Street Research, November 6, 2014. “The $ 9 Trillion Sale.” Economist, January 11, 2014.
“‘Overkill’ by Institutions Has Hampered Growth: Jaitley.” Business Standard, April 27, 2015.
Palaiologos, Yannis. “Syriza Must Let Markets and Meritocracy Rule.” Financial Times, May 12, 2015.
Poddar, Tushar. “How to Reduce Fiscal Deficit.” Economic Times, February 10, 2015.
Sharma, Ruchir. “Time for Slash and Burn to Rejuvenate Markets.” Times of India, February 14, 2011.
Sharma, Ruchir. “How Emerging Markets Lost Their Mojo.” Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2013.
Sharma, Ruchir. “China’s Illusory Growth Numbers.” Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2013.
Steinberg, Chad, and Masato Nakane. “Can Women Save Japan?” International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Studwell, Joe. How Asia Works: Success and Failure in the World’s Most Dynamic Region. New York: Grove, 2013.
Weatley, Jonathan. “Brazil’s Leader Blames White People for Crisis.” Financial Times, March 27, 2009.
Yepes, Concepcion, Pete Pedoni, and Xingwei Hu. “Crime and the Economy in Mexican States: Heterogeneous Panel Estimates (1993–2012).” International Monetary Fund, 2015.
Глава 5. “Бизнес-оазисы”
Abhluwalia, Montek. “Regional Balance in Indian Planning.” Planning Commission, 2013.
Alegado, Siegfrid O. “BPO Companies Turning to Cebu.” GMA News, November 5, 2013.
Anderson, Jonathan. “How to Think About Emerging Markets (Part 2).” Emerging Advisers Group, September 4, 2012.
Anderson, Jonathan. “A Bit of Cold Water on Brazil Reform Euphoria.” EM Advisers Group, September 19, 2014.
Anderson, Jonathan. “Myths and Realities of Mexican Competitiveness.” Jonathan Anderson, September 29, 2014.
Anderson, Jonathan. “Things Look Better in East Africa.” EM Advisers Group, May 4, 2015.
“ASEAN and China: Strengthening Economic Links.” HSBC Economics, August 5, 2014.
“Bangladesh: Getting Back to Business.” HSBC Research, June 29, 2015. Boudreau, John. “The Biggest Winner from TPP Trade Deal May Be Vietnam.” Bloomberg News, October 8, 2015.
“China’s Foreign Ports: The New Masters and Commanders.” Economist, June 8, 2013.
Cowan, David. “Thinking about North Africa in 2015–2016.” Citigroup Research, April 27, 2015.
Crabtree, James. “Sri Lanka Sees Benefits of China’s Maritime Silk Road Plan.” Financial Times, September 17, 2014.
Davis, Bob. “The U. S – China Disconnect on Trade Deals.” Wall Street Journal, May 3, 2015.
“End of an Era for Oil and the Middle East.” BCA Research, April 9, 2015. Essien, Victor. “Regional Trade Agreements in Africa: A Historical and Bibliographic Account of ECOWAS and CEMAC.” NYU Global, 2006. “Fortnightly Thoughts: Brighter Lights, Bigger Cities.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, November 21, 2013.
Fujita, Masahisa, and Paul Krugman. “The New Economic Geography: Past, Present, and the Future.” Papers in Regional Science 83 (2004): 139–64.
Glaeser, Edward L., and Albert Saiz. “The Rise of the Skilled City.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 10191, December 2003.
Guha, Ramachandra. “Ideas of Public Service.” Telegraph, July 11, 2015. Holland, Robert. “Why Hasn’t Globalization Killed Manufacturing Clusters.” Harvard Business School, 2015.
Johnson, Antonia Ax: son, and Stefan Persson. “Do Not Fight Free Trade – It Makes Countries Richer.” Financial Times, July 23, 2015.
Kapur, Devesh. “Western Anti-capitalists Take Too Much for Granted.” Financial Times, July 23, 2014.
Khanna, Parag. “The End of the Nation-State?” New York Times, October 12, 2013.
Kroeber, Arthur. “Four Shades of Latin America.” GK Research, March 12, 2013.
Lissovolik, Yaroslav. “Discerning Russia’s Regional Potential.” Deutsche Bank Research, October 4, 2013.
Manohar, Sumana, Hugo Scott-Gall, and Megha Chaturvedi. “Small Dots, Big Picture: Is Trade Set to Fade?” Goldman Sachs Investment Research, September 24, 2015.
Maughan, Tim. “The Dystopian Lake Filled by the World’s Tech Lust.” BBC News, April 2, 2015.
“Mercosur RIP?” Economist, June 14, 2012.
Naím, Moisés. “The Most Important Alliance You’ve Never Heard Of.” Atlantic, February 17, 2014.
“New Frontiers.” Economist, January 11, 2014.
“The New Masters and Commanders.” Economist, June 8, 2013. “The Nuclear Deal’s Other Winner.” Economist, July 25, 2015.
Rickards, James. Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis. New York: Portfolio/Penguin, 2012.
“Russia Equity Strategy – Discerning Russia’s Regional Potential.” Deutsche Bank Research, October 4, 2013.
Shapiro, Jesse. “Smart Cities: Quality of Life, Productivity, and the Growth Effects of Human Capital.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 11615, September 2005.
Sharma, Ruchir. “Europe’s Flying Geese.” Economic Times, November 19, 2007. “The Tricks of Trade: A Structural Change?” UBS Investment Research, November 13, 2013.
Zakaria, Fareed. “America’s Prospects Are Promising Indeed.” Washington Post, November 20, 2014.
Zeihan, Peter. The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder. New York: Twelve, 2014.
Глава 6. Первым делом – заводы
Anderlini, Jamil. “Property Bubble Is a ‘Major Risk to China.” Financial Times, August 25, 2014.
Anderson, Jonathan. “The EM Agricultural Investment Boom.” EM Advisers Group, October 31, 2014.
Anderson, Jonathan. “Still Happy with Disinflation.” EM Advisers Group, May 14, 2015. Bradsher, Keith. “China’s Housing Resists Efforts to Spur Market.” New York Times, December 18, 2014.
Burgis, Tom. The Looting Machine: Warlords, Oligarchs, Corporations, and the Theft of Africa’s Wealth. New York: PublicAffairs, 2015.
Burgis, Tom. “Nigeria Unraveled.” Financial Times, February 14, 2015.
Carroll, Christopher. “Precautionary Saving and the Marginal Propensity to Consume Out of Permanent Income.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 8233, April 2001.
Carroll, Christopher, Jody Overland, and David Weil. “Saving and Growth with Habit Formation.” American Economic Review 90, no. 3 (2000): 341–55.
Chen, Nan-Kuang. “Asset Price Fluctuations in Taiwan: Evidence from Stock and Real Estate Prices 1973 to 1992.” Journal of Asian Economics 12, no. 2 (2001): 215–32.
“China’s Ghost City Index Holds the Future.” China Investment Network, October 13, 2014.
Crooks, Ed. “US Shale Oil Industry Hit by $ 30bn Outflows.” Financial Times, September 6, 2015.
“The Daily – A Better Class of Bubble.” Gavekal Dragonomics, December 1, 2014.
DeBusschere, Dennis, and Brian Herlihy. “Disruptive Technologies and Their Impact on the Economy.” ISI Group, May 9, 2014.
Evans-Pritchard, Ambrose. “Devaluation by China Is the Next Great Risk for a Deflationary World.” Telegraph, February 4, 2015.
Flowers, Andrew. “If a Computer Can Diagnose Cancer, Will Doctors Become Obsolete?” FiveThirtyEight, August 22, 2014.
Garchitorena, Rafael, and Carissa Mangubat. “Manufacturing: A New Growth Driver?” Deutsche Bank, September 24, 2012.
Ghani, Ejaz, and Stephen O’Connell. “Can Service Be a Growth Escalator in Low-Income Countries?” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, July 1, 2014.
Ghani, Ejaz William Robert Kerr, and Alex Segura. “Informal Tradables and the Employment Growth of Indian Manufacturing,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper no. WPS7206, March 2, 2015.
Haussman, Ricardo, et al. The Atlas of Economic Complexity. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2012.
Krane, Jim, and Mark Agerton. “The U. S. Shale Boom Takes a Break.” Foreign Affairs May 26, 2015.
Li, Cao. “Under Xi, China’s Wave of ‘Weird Architecture’ May Have Peaked.” New York Times, December 19, 2014.
Lubas, Amy, and Veneta Dimitrova. “Is Dwindling Productivity Here to Stay?” Ned Davis Research Group, May 14, 2015.
Meyer, Gregory. “Harsh Realities Finally Push US Champions of Shale Oil into Retreat.” Financial Times, November 1, 2015.
Moskvitch, Katia. “How Israel Turned Itself into a High-Tech Hub.” BBC News, November 21, 2011.
Nanda, Ramana, and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf. “Investment Cycles and Startup Innovation.” Journal of Finance Economics 110, no. 2 (2013): 403–18.
“Nigeria: Looking Down the Abyss.” BCA Research, January 28, 2015.
Pilling, David. “China May Be in Much Better Shape than It Looks.” Financial Times, October 16, 2013.
Rao, Jaithirth. “How They Killed Our Factories.” Indian Express, January 20, 2014.
Rodrik, Dani. “The Future of Economic Convergence.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 17400, September 2011.
Rodrik, Dani. “No More Growth Miracles.” Project Syndicate, August 8, 2012.
Rowden, Rick. “The Myth of Africa’s Rise: Why the Rumors of Africa’s Explosive Growth Have Been Greatly Exaggerated.” Foreign Policy, January 4, 2013.
Saeed, Saquib. “A Pakistani’s Perspective: Why Bangladesh Is Doing Better than Pakistan.” Tribune June 2, 2014.
Schofield, Mark. “Citi Macro Views: Global Strategy and Macro Group Theme Book.” Citigroup Research, January 2015.
Scott, Margaret. “The World According to Japan: From a Faux Holland to Petite Pyramids, the Japanese Indulge in the Exotic – in the Safety of Their Own Back Yard.” Los Angeles Times, November 21, 1993.
“The Service Elevator.” Economist, May 19, 2011.
Spense, Michael. “Labor’s Digital Displacement.” Project Syndicate, May 22, 2014.
Tandiyono, Felicia. “ASEAN Infrastructure: Indonesia vs Thailand.” JP Morgan Research, November 5, 2014.
Technion. 100 Years of Science and Technology. 2011.
Timmons, Heather, and J. Adam Huggins. “New York Manhole Covers, Forged Barefoot in India.” New York Times, November 26, 2007.
Titon, Andrew. “How India Can Become the Next Korea.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, April 11, 2014.
Titon, Andrew. “Growth Recovery and Trade Stagnation – Evidence from New Data.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, June 5, 2015.
“US Shale: Calm Before the Storm.” Financial Times, December 3, 2015. “What Next for the Start-up Nation?” Economist, January 21, 2012.
“Why Africa Is Becoming Less Dependent on Commodities.” Economist, January 11, 2015.
Глава 7. Цены на лук
Anderson, Jonathan. “OK, Seriously, What Will It Take to Get Brazilian Inflation Down?” EM Advisers Group, March 1, 2014.
Anderson, Jonathan. “The Food Glut Charts (2014 Edition).” EM Advisers Group, October 31, 2014.
Bellemare, Marc. “Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest.”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, June 26, 2014.
Bergen, Mark. “Line of Credit.” Caravan Magazine, October 1, 2013.
Berger, Helge, and Mark Spoerer, “Economic Crises and the European Revolutions of 1848,” Journal of Economic History 61, no. 2 (June 2001): 293–326.
Bloom, Nick, Stephen Bond, and John Van Reenen. “Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics.” Review of Economic Studies 74, no. 2 (2006): 391–415.
Borio, Claudio, Magdalena Erdem, Andrew Filardo, and Boris Hofmann. “The Costs of Deflations: A Historical Perspective.” Bank of International Settlements, 2015.
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, Luis Cespedes, and Alessandro Rebucci. “Global Liquidity, House Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies.” Bank of England Working Papers, 2015.
Cochrane, John H. “Who’s Afraid of a Little Deflation?” Wall Street Journal, November 17, 2014.
Druckenmiller, Stanley, and Kevin Ward. “The Asset-Rich, Income-Poor Economy.” Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2014.
“Falling Prices Are Good for Workers.” Lombard Street Research, January 23, 2015.
Fischer, David Hackett. The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. New York: Oxford University Press, 1996.
Fisher, Irving. “The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depression.” St. Louis Federal Reserve, n.d.
Gavae, Charles. “Back to MV=PQ.” GK Research, January 9, 2014.
Hatiuz, Jan. “Revisiting the Risk of Another Bus.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, November 3, 2014.
Irwin, Neil. “Of Kiwis and Currencies: How a 2 % Inflation Target Became Global Economic Gospel.” New York Times, December 19, 2014.
Kay, John. “History Is the Antidote to Fear of Falling Prices.” Financial Times, January 27, 2015.
Lubin, David, Guillermo Mondino, and Johanna Chua. “Emerging Markets Macro and Strategy Outlook: Can EM Grow If World Trade Doesn’t?” Citigroup Research, February 27, 2015.
Luhnor, David. “The Two Latin Americas.” Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2014. Maheshwari, Vivek, Nimish Joshi, Bravesh Shah, and Rohit Kadam. “Taste of India: E-Tailing, A Virtual Reality.” CLSA Research, January 10, 2014.
Minack, Gerard. “The Wrong Soft of Inlation.” Minack Advisors, August 22, 2014. “Mission Impossible: 2 % Inflation.” BCA Research, August 20, 2015.
Mohanty, Deepak, A. B. Chakraborty, Abhiman Das, and Joice John. “Inflation Threshold in India: An Empirical Investigation.” RBI Working Paper Series, 2011.
“OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2015.” 2015.
Paldam, Martin. “Inflation and Political Instability in Eight Latin American Countries 1946–83.” Public Choice 52, no. 2 (1987): 143–68.
Redenius, Jeremy, Catherine Tubb, and Noelle Guo. “The Challenges to Feeding the World May Not Be So Challenging After All.” Bernstein Research, December 6, 2013.
Reid, Jim, Nick Burns, and Seb Barker. “Long-Term Asset Return Study: Bonds: The Final Bubble Frontier?” Deutsche Bank Markets Research Report, September 10, 2014.
Schofield, Mark. “Challenging the Consensus on Inflation.” Citigroup Research, June 29, 2015.
Scott, David. “Deflationary Boom – Some Random Thoughts and Questions.” Chaam Advisors, March 2, 2015.
Sharma, Ruchir. “The Oil Shock with No Pain.” Newsweek, October 31, 2005.
Sharma, Ruchir. “Cracking Inflation Should Be India’s Priority.” Financial Times, December 8, 2013.
Stephens, Bret. “Book Review: ‘The Myth of America’s Decline,’ by Josef Joffe.” Wall Street Journal, November 6, 2013.
Ward, Justin. “Commodity Super Cycle Analysis.” Wells Fargo Research, January 15, 2015.
Warsh, Kevin, and Stanley Druckenmiller. “The Asset-Rich, Income-Poor Economy.” Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2014.
Wilson, Dominican. “Emerging Markets: EM Macro Daily – Who in EM Can Live the Australian Dream?” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, February 26, 2014.
“World Bank Tackles Food Emergency.” BBC News, April 14, 2008.
Глава 8. Дешево – это хорошо
Ahmed, Shaghil, and Andrei Zlate. “Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: A Brave New World.” Federal Reserve, June 2013.
Basri, M. Chatib, and Hal Hill. “Ideas, Interests, and Oil Prices: The Political Economy of Trade Reform During Soeharto’s Indonesia.” University of Indonesia and Australian National University, 2004.
Davidson, Paul. “IMF Chief Says Global Growth Still Too Weak.” USA Today, April 2, 2014.
“Don’t Catch Falling Knives.” BCA Research, July 29, 2015.
“EM Macro Daily: China Capital Outflow Risk – The Curious Case of the Missing $ 300 Billions.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, January 13, 2015.
Forbes, Kristin. “Financial ‘Deglobalization’?: Capital Flows, Banks, and the Beatles.” Bank of England, 2014.
Freund, Caroline. “Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries.” International Finance Discussion Papers, 2000.
“Global Macro Jottings: Financial Deglobalization.” VTB Capital, November 20, 2014.
Harvey, Oliver, and Robin Winkler. “Dark Matter: The Hidden Capital Flows That Drive G10 Exchange Rates.” Deutsche Bank Markets Research, March 6, 2015).
Hyman, Ed. “Bond Yields Up But S&P Advances.” Evercore ISI, February 18, 2015.
“Is That a Kleptocrat in Your Balance of Payments?” Financial Times Alphaville, March 10, 2015.
Kaminsky, Graciela, Saul Lizondo, and Carmen Reinhart. “Leading Indicators of Currency Crises.” International Monetary Fund, 1998.
Keohane, David. “China, When a Hot Money Outflow Threatens to Become a Torrent.” Financial Times Alphaville, May 13, 2015.
Lowther, Ed. “A Short History of the Pound.” BBC News, February 14, 2014. “NRIs Sent Home $ 65 Billion in Past Six Months: Lord Swraj Paul.” Press Trust of India, April 22, 2015.
“Pushing the Limits of International Trade Policy.” World Bank, 2014.
Sanyal, Sanjeev. “The Random Walk: Mapping the World’s Prices 2015.” Deutsche Bank Research, April 14, 2015.
Sharma, Ruchir. “And Then There Were None.” Economic Times, September 5, 2000.
Sharma, Ruchir. “Why Europe Will Bounce Back in 2013.” Financial Times, December 18, 2012.
Sharma, Ruchir. “Don’t Expect Emerging Markets to Be Flooded in Cheap Money.” Financial Times, May 20, 2013.
Singh, Shweta. “Mexico Has a Competitive Edge.” Lombard Street Research, August 1, 2014.
Глава 9. Поцелуй долга
Abiad, Abdul, Giovanni Dell’Arrica, and Bin Li. “Creditless Recoveries.” International Monetary Fund, 2011.
Akarli, Ahmet, and Michael Hinds. “Turkey’s Dormant Fault Line.” Goldman Sachs Research, May 10, 2013.
Alessi, Lucia, and Carsten Detken. “Quasi Real Time Early Warning Indicators for Costly Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles: A Role for Global Liquidity.” Economic Journal of Political Economy 27, no. 3 (2011).
Anderlini, Jamil. “China: Overborrowed and Overbuilt.” Financial Times, January 29, 2015.
Anderson, Jonathan. “Back on the Wrong Track.” EM Advisers Group, September 11, 2013.
Anderson, Jonathan. “The Auto Theory of Central Europe.” EM Advisers Group, April 9, 2014.
Biggs, Michael, Thomas Mayer, and Andreas Pick. “Credit and Economic Recovery: Demistifying Phoenix Miracles.” DNB Working Paper, 2009. “Boomophobia.” CLSA Research, 2007.
Borio, Claudio, and Mathias Drehmann. “Assessing the Risk of Banking Crises-Revisited.” Bank for International Settlements Quarterly Review, March 2, 2009.
Broda, Christian, and Stanley Druckenmiller. “The Fed’s Faulty 1937 Excuse.” Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2015.
Buttiglone, Luigi, Philip Lane, and Lucrezia Reichlin. “Deleveraging? What Deleveraging?” Center for Economic Policy Research, 2014.
Caballero, Ricardo J., Takeo Hoshi, and Anil Kashyap. “Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan.” American Economic Review 98, no. 5 (2008): 1943–77.
Calderón, César, and Megumi Kubota. “Gross Inflows Gone Wild: Gross Capital Inflows, Credit Booms and Crises.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2012.
Calvo, Guillermo, Alejandro Izquierdo, and Ernesto Talvi. “Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 12101, March 2006.
Caprio, Gerard, Daniela Klingebiel, Luc Laeven, and Guillermo Noguera. “Banking Crisis Database.” World Bank, 2003.
Chancellor, Edward, and Mike Monnelly. “Feeding the Dragon: Why China’s Credit System Looks Vulnerable.” GMO, January 2013. “China Faces the Kiss of Debt.” Email to Dev Kar, May 13, 2015.
“China’s Property Problems.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, October 21, 2014.
“China’s Rigged IPOs.” Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2015.
Dell’Arriccia, Giovanni, Deniz Igan, Luc Laeven, and Hui Tong. “Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: How to Deal with Credit Booms.” International Monetary Fund Staff Discussion Note no. 12/06, June 7, 2012.
Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, and Enrica Detragiache. “The Determinants of Banking Crises.” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 45, no. 1 (March 1998).
Dobbs, Richard, Susan Lund, Jonathan Woetzel, and Mina Mutafchieva. “Debt and Not Much Deleveraging.” McKinsey Global Institute, 2015.
Dumas, Charlie. “Eurozone Needs a Debt Relief Conference.” Lombard Street Research, December 22, 2014.
“82nd Annual Report: Rebalancing Growth.” Bank for International Settlements, June 24, 2012.
“The Elephant in the Room.” JP Morgan Research, September 2, 2015.
“The Future History of China’s Deleveraging.” Gavekal Dragonomics, July 2014.
“Global Financial Stability Report: The Quest for Lasting Stability.” International Monetary Fund, April 2011.
Goldsmith, Raymond W. “Financial Structure and Development.” National Bureau of Economic Research, 1969.
Hensley, David, David Mackie, and Zina Bushra Sajid. “Special Report: Hazard Ahead: The EM Credit Cycle Has Turned Down.” JP Morgan Research, November 7, 2015.
He, Dong, and Robert Neil McCauley. “Transmitting Global Liquidity to East Asia: Policy Rates, Bond Yields, Currencies and Dollar Credit.” Bank for International Settlements, Working Paper no. 431, October 2013.
Jordà, Òscar, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor. “The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 20501, September 2014.
Jordà, Òscar, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor. “Leveraged Bubbles.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 21486, August 2015.
Kaplan, Robert. “China’s Perilous Tangle of Military and Economic Fortunes.” Financial Times, July 27, 2014.
Kindleberger, Charles, and Robert Z. Aliber. Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. 6th ed. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011.
Laeven, Luc, and Fabián Valencia. “Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update.” International Monetary Fund, Working Paper no. 12/163, June 2012).
Laponte, Pierre, and Alex Bellefleur. “When the Music Stops Playing for Chinese Credit.” Pavilion, October 2, 2014.
Lowenstein, Matthew. “China’s Shadow Currency.” Diplomat, December 12, 2013.
Lund-Jensen, Kasper. “Monitoring Systemic Risk Based on Dynamic Thresholds.” International Monetary Fund, Working Paper no. 12/159, June 2012.
McKinnon, Ronald. Money and Capital in Economic Development. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1973.
Mendoza, Enrique G., and Marco E. Terrones. “An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence from Macro Aggregates and Firm Level Data.” International Monetary Fund, Working Paper no. 08/226, April 6, 2008.
Mian, Atif, and Amir Sufi. House of Debt: How They (And You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014.
Murphy, David, and Lei Chen. “Default at the Gate.” CLSA, September 29, 2014.
“New Mediocre.” Lombard Street Research, November 6, 2014.
Peek, Joe, and Eric S. Rosengren. “Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incetives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 9643, April 2003.
Pettis, Michael. Avoiding the Fall: China’s Economic Restructuring. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013.
Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. “Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 14587, December 2008.
Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. “From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 15795, March 2010.
Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. “Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten.” International Monetary Fund, December 24, 2013.
“Risks to Growth from Build Ups in Public Debt.” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, March 7, 2012.
Rodrik, Dani. One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007.
Savary, Mathieu. “Give Credit Where Credit Is Due.” BCA Research, November 27, 2015.
Schularick, Moritz, and Alan Taylor. “Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises 1870–2008.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 15512, November 2009.
“Shanghai Surprises.” Wall Street Journal, December 10, 2014.
Sharma, Ruchir. “China Has Its Own Debt Bomb.” Wall Street Journal, February 26, 2013.
Sharma, Ruchir. “China’s Debt Fueled Boom.” Financial Times, January 27, 2014.
Strom, Stephanie. “Clouds Hanging Over Sogo Bankruptcy Lift a Bit in Japan.” New York Times, July 15, 2000.
Taylor, Alan M. “Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 21039, March 2015.
Taylor, Alan M. “The Great Leveraging: Five Facts and Five Lessons for Policymakers.” Bank for International Settlements, July 2012.
Timmons, Heather. “The Secret Factor in China’s Housing Bubble? Mistresses.” Aeon Magazine, October 14, 2013.
Wolf, Martin. “Credit Cannot Outgrow GDP Forever, Even in China.” Financial Times, April 1, 2014.
Wolf, Martin. “We Are Trapped in a Cycle of Credit Booms.” Financial Times, October 7, 2014.
Zhang, Joe. “China’s Economy Is Choking on a Surfeit of Stimulus.” Financial Times, November 10, 2014.
Zhao, Longying. “Chinese Housing: Tough Comparisons.” Empirical Research Partners, July 9, 2014.
Глава 10. Шумовое сопровождение
Acemoglu, Daron. “Constitutions, Politics, and Economics.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 11235, March 2005.
Agenor, Pierre-Richard, Otaviano Canuto, and Michael Jelenic. “Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps.” The World Bank: Economic Premise, November 2012.
“America’s Future.” Economist, July 9, 2009.
Anderson, Jonathan. “Hard Thinking on China’s Traps, Reforms, and the Plenum.” EM Advisers Group, November 4, 2013.
Anderson, Jonathan. “The Inexorable End of Africa.” EM Advisers Group, April 3, 2014. Birrell, Ian. “Africa Is Refuting the Usual Economic Pessimism.” Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2014.
Cevik, Serhan, and Mohammad Rahmati. “Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empircal Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions.” International Monetary Fund, 2013.
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