Примечания

1. National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States,“The 9 /11 Commission Report,”2004, http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/report /911Report Exec.htm.

2. Keith E. Stanovich and Richard F. West, “Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate?”, Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (2000): 645–665.

1. Jack Brittain and Sam Sitkin, “Carter Racing,” Delta Leadership, 2006. This is a simulation, distributed by a for-profit company: For copyright clearance, contact Delta Leadership, Inc: [email protected]; P. O. Box 794, Carrboro, NC 27510.

2. Car Talk, NPR, May 24, 2003.

3. Daniel J. Simons and Chris F. Chabris, “Gorillas in Our Midst: Sustained Inattentional Blindness for Dynamic Events,” Perception 28 (1999): 1059–1074.

4. Five Easy Pieces, DVD, directed by Bob Rafelson (1970; Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, 1999).

1. Если не упомянуты другие источники, вся информация по делу Садаски взята из статьи Марка Виеры (Mark Viera), “In Sexual Abuse Case, a Focus on How Paterno Reacted,” New York Times, November 6, 2011.

2. Pete Thamel, “State Officials Blast Penn State in Sandusky Case,” New York Times, November 7, 2011.

3. Thomas Farragher, “Admission of Awareness Damning for Law,” Boston Globe, December 14, 2002, http://www.boston.com/globe/spotlight/abuse/stories3/121402 admission.htm.

4. Max H. Bazerman and Ann E. Tenbrunsel, Blind Spots: Why We Fail to Do What’s Right and What to Do About It (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).

5. Christopher Hitchens, “Bringing the Pope to Justice,” Newsweek, May 3, 2010.

6. U. S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, The Nature and Scope of the Problem of Sexual Abuse of Minors by Catholic Priests and Deacons in the United States, 1950–2002: A Research Study Conducted by the John Jay College of Criminal Justice (Washington, D.C.: 2004).

7. Там же.

8. Dolly Chugh, Max H. Bazerman, and Mahzarin R. Banaji, “Bounded Ethicality as a Psychological Barrier to Recognizing Conflicts of Interest,” in Conflicts of Interest: Problems and Solutions from Law, Medicine and Organizational Settings, ed. Don A. Moore, Daylian Cain, George Loewenstein, and Max H. Bazerman (London: Cambridge University Press, 2005); Bazerman and Tenbrunsel, Blind Spots.

9. “Belichick Fined,” Mike & Mike in the Morning, ESPN.com audiopodcast, September 14, 2007.

10. United States of America v. Philip Morris USA, et al., Docket No. CA99–02496, May 4, 2005, http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/pro08h00/pdf.

11. The website of the Government Accountability Project is http://www.whistleblower.org.

12. Carol D. Leonnig, “Judge in Tobacco Case Urges Settlement,” Washington Post, June 21, 2005, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/20/AR2005062001245.html; “Government Witness in Tobacco Case Says Justice Department Lawyers Asked Him to Weaken Testimony,” Common Dreams News Center, June 20, 2005, http:// www.commondreams.org /news2005/0620–25.htm.

1. Susan Dominus, “The Woman Who Took the Fall for JPMorgan,” New York Times, October 3, 2012.

2. Monica Langley, “Inside J. P. Morgan’s Blunder,” Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2012.

3. Dominus, “The Woman Who Took the Fall for JPMorgan.”

4. Langley, “Inside J. P. Morgan’s Blunder.”

5. Там же.

6. Dawn Kopecki, Phil Mattingly, and Clea Benson, “Dimon Fires back at Complex System in U. S. Senate Grilling,” Bloomberg BusinessWeek, June 13, 2012.

7. Langley, “Inside J. P. Morgan’s Blunder.”

8. Информация об истории JPMorgan Chase взята из работы Доуна Копески (Dawn Kopecki), “JPMorgan Pays $920 Million to Settle London Whale Probes,” Bloomberg, September 20, 2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013–09–19/jpmorgan-chase-agrees-to-pay-920-million-for-london-whale-loss.html.

9. Maura Dolan,“Barry Bonds’ Conviction for Obstruction of Justice is Upheld,” Los Angeles Times, September 13, 2013.

10. Bazerman and Tenbrunsel, Blind Spots.

11. Там же.

12. Обсуждение дела Enron основано на “Commentary: No Excuses for Enron’s Board,” Bloomberg, July 28, 2002, http://www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/163876-commentary-no-excusesfor-enron-s-board?type=old_article.

13. David Winkler, “India’s Satyam Accounting Scandal,” University of Iowa Center for International Finance and Development, February 1, 2010, http://blogs.law.uiowa.edu/ebook/content/uicifd-briefingpaper-no-8-indias-satyam-accounting-scandal.

14. Winkler, “India’s Satyam Accounting Scandal.”

15. Там же.

16. John Glover, “Libor, Set by Fewer Banks, Losing Status as a Benchmark,” Bloomberg Business Week, October 8, 2012, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012–10–08/libor-now-set-by-six-bankslosing-status-as-a-benchmark.

17. Stephan Gandel, “Barclays the Biggest Libor Liar? No, That May Have Been Citi,” CNN Money, July 19, 2012, http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/07/19/citigroup-biggest-libor-liar/.

18. Andrea Tan, Gavin Finch, and Liam Vaughan, “RBS Instant Messages Show Libor Rates Skewed for Traders,” Bloomberg, September 26, 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com /news /2012–09–25/rbs-instant-messagesshow-libor-rates-skewed-for-traders.html.

19. Alexis Levine and Michael Harquail, “Wheatley Review May Mean Big Changes for LIBOR,” Blakes Business, October 5, 2012, http://www.blakes.com/English/Resources/Bulletins/Pages/ Details.aspx?BulletinID=1516.

20. Naomi Wolf, “This Global Financial Fraud and Its Gatekeepers,” The Guardian, July 14, 2012.

1. Peter Aldhous, “Misconduct Found in Harvard Animal Morality Prof ’s Lab,” New Scientist, August 11, 2010.

2. Tom Bartlett, “Document Sheds Light on Investigation at Harvard,” Chronicle of Higher Education, August 19, 2010, http://chronicle.com/article/Document-Sheds-Light-on/123988/.

3. “Stapel betuigt openlijk ‘diepe spijt,’ ” Brabants Dagblad, October 31, 2011, translated at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diederik Stapel#citenote-26.

4. Max H. Bazerman, Kimberly P. Morgan, and George F. Loewenstein, “The Impossibility of Auditor Independence,” Sloan Management Review 38, no. 4 (1997) 98–94.

5. Linda Babcock, George Loewenstein, Samuel Issacharoff, and Colin Camerer, “Biased Judgments of Fairness in Bargaining,” American Economic Review 85, no. 5 (1995): 1337–1343.

6. Don A. Moore, Lloyd Tanlu, and Max H. Bazerman, “Conflict of Interest and the Intrusion of Bias,” Judgment and Decision Making 5, no. 1 (2010): 37–53.

7. Linda Babcock and George Loewenstein, “Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 11, no. 1 (1997): 109–126.

8. Chugh, Bazerman, and Banaji, “Bounded Ethicality as a Psychological Barrier to Recognizing Conflicts of Interest.”

9. Joseph P. Simmons, Leif D. Nelson, and Uri Simonsohn, “False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed Flexibility in Data Collection and Analysis Allows Presenting Anything as Significant,” Psychological Science 22 (November 2011): 1359–1366.

10. Я не описываю сам эксперимент.

11. Simmons et al., “False-Positive Psychology.”

12. Leslie K. John, George Loewenstein, and Drazen Prelec, “Measuring the Prevalence of Questionable Research Practices with Incentives for Truth-telling,” Psychological Science 23, no. 5 (2012): 524–532.

13. Bazerman and Tenbrunsel, Blind Spots.

14. Simmons et al., “False-Positive Psychology.”

15. Jann Swanson, “Ratings Agencies Hit for Role in Financial Crisis,” Mortgage News Daily, October 22, 2008, http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/10232008 Ratings Agencies.asp.

16. Nathaniel Popper, “S.&P. Bond Deals Are on the Rise Since It Relaxed Rating Criteria,” New York Times DealBook, September 17, 2013, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/09/17/s-p-bond-deals-areon-the-rise-since-it-relaxed-rating-criteria/?r=0.

17. Popper, “S.&P. Bond Deals Are on the Rise Since It Relaxed Rating Criteria.”

1. John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa, Smart Choices (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1999).

2. Adam Pash, “Microsoft’s Browser Comparison Chart Offends Anyone Who’s Ever Used Another Browser,” Lifehacker, June 20, 2009, http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2009/06/microsofts-browser-comparison-chartoffends-anyone-whos-ever-used-another-browser/.

3. U. S. Senate, Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, “Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: Anatomy of a Financial Collapse,” April 13, 2011, http://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Financial Crisis/FinancialCrisisReport.pdf?attempt=2.

4. Jesse Eisenger, “Misdirection in Goldman Sachs’s Housing Short,” New York Times DealBook, June 15, 2011, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/misdirection-in-goldman-sachss-housing-short/.

5. J. D. Trout, “An Index of Honesty,” 2012. Loyola University, workingpaper.

6. Todd Rogers and Michael I. Norton, “The Artful Dodger: Answering the Wrong Question the Right Way,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 17, no. 2 (2011): 139–147.

7. Rogers and Norton, “The Artful Dodger.”

8. Todd Rogers, Francesca Gino, Michael I. Norton, Richard Zeckhauser, and Maurice Schweitzer, “Artful Dodging and Negotiation,”2013. Harvard University, working paper.

9. Garold Stasser, “Computer Simulation as a Research Tool: The DISCUSS Model of Group Decision Making,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 24, no. 5 (1988): 393–422; Garold Stasser and Dennis D. Stewart, “Discovery of Hidden Profiles by Decisionmaking Groups: Solving a Problem versus Making a Judgment,” Journal of Personality & Social Psychology 63, no. 3 (1992): 426–434; Garold Stasser and William Titus, “Pooling of Unshared Information in Group Decision Making: Biased Information Sampling During Discussion,” Journal of Personality & Social Psychology 48, no. 6 (1985): 1467–1478; Deborah H. Gruenfeld, Elizabeth A. Mannix, Katherine Y. Williams, and Margaret A. Neale, “Group Composition and Decision Making: How Member Familiarity and Information Distribution Affect Process and Performance,” Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes 67, no. 1 (1996): 1–15.

10. Stasser and Titus, “Pooling of Unshared Information in Group Decision Making.

1. Arthur Levitt, Take On the Street: What Wall Street and Corporate America Don’t Want You to Know. What You Can Do to Fight Back (New York: Random House, 2002).

2. Daniel J. Simons, “Current Approaches to Change Blindness,” Visual Cognition 7, nos. 1–3 (2000): 1–15.

3. Daniel J. Simons, Christopher F. Chabris, Tatiana T. Schnur, and Daniel T. Levin, “Evidence for Preserved Representations in Change Blindness,” Consciousness and Cognition 11 (2002): 78–97.

4. Для того чтобы предложенные на утверждение оценки соответствовали нашей задаче, утверждающим сообщили, что они будут выполнять свою задачу в два этапа, на одном из которых им предложат реальные оценки участников другого исследования. Благодаря этому мы могли манипулировать оценками, предоставленными утверждающим на первом этапе, не подводя никого из участников эксперимента.

5. Scott McGregor, “Earnings Management and Manipulation,” n. d., http://webpage.pace.edu/pviswanath/notes/corpfin/earningsmanip.html.

6. Catherine M. Schrand and Sarah L. C. Zechman, “Executive Overconfidence and the Slippery Slope to Financial Misreporting,”Journal of Accounting & Economics 53 (2012): 311–329.

7. Эта задача была взята из работы Марка Алперта (Marc Alpert) и Говарда Раффия (Howard Raffia) и адаптирована, “A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors, in Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, ed. Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1982).

8. Max H. Bazerman and Don A. Moore, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, 8th ed. (New York: Wiley, 2013); Don A. Moore and Paul J. Healy, “The Trouble with Overconfidence,” Psychological Review 115, no. 2 (2008): 502–517. В этих источниках также рассматриваются условия, при которых можно предсказать, как возникнет недостаточная уверенность в себе.

9. See Bazerman and Moore, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, for an overview of this literature.

10. Ulrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate, “CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment,” Journal of Finance 60, no. 6 (2005): 2661–2700.

11. “Former President and Former Vice-President of Kurzweil Applied Intelligence Sentenced to Prison for Roles in Securities Fraud Scheme,” PRNewswire, December 12, 1996, http://www.mackenty.com/stever/kan/sentenced.html.

12. Barry M. Staw, “Knee-deep in the Big Muddy: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 16, no. 1 (1976): 27–44; Bazerman and Moore, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making.

13. “2011 UBS Rogue Trader Scandal,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011 UBS rogue trader scandal.

14. Mark Scott, “UBS Fined $47.5 Million in Rogue Trading Scandal,”New York Times DealBook, November 26, 2012, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/11/26/ubs-fined-47–5-million-in-rogue-tradingscandal/.

15. Celia Moore, “Psychological Perspectives on Corruption,” in Psychological Perspectives on Ethical Behavior and Decision Making, ed. David De Cremer (Charlotte, NC: Information Age, 2009).

16. The Clinton-Lewinsky discussion is based on “Lewinsky Scandal,”Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewinsky scandal.

1. Arthur Conan Doyle, Sherlock Holmes: Selected Stories (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), 1–33.

2. Ilana Ritov and Jonathon Baron, “Reluctance to Vaccinate: Omission Bias and Ambiguity,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 3 (1990): 263–277; Jacqueline R. Meszaros, David A. Asch, Jonathan Baron, John Hershey, Howard Kunreuther, and Joanne Schwartz– Buzaglo, Cognitive Processes and the Decisions of Some Parents to Forego Pertussis Vaccination for Their Children,” Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 49 (1996): 697–703.

3. Peter Schmidt, “Children of Alumni Are Uniquely Harmed by Admissions Preferences, Study Finds,” Chronicle of Higher Education, April 6, 2007.

4. “The Curse of Nepotism,” Economist, January 8, 2004.

5. Там же.

6. Thomas J. Espenshade, Chang Y. Chung, and Joan L. Walling,“Admission Preferences for Minority Students, Athletes, and Legacies at Elite Universities,” Social Science Quarterly 85 (December 2004):1422–1446.

7. Michael Hurwitz, “The Impact of Legacy Status on Undergraduate Admissions at Elite Colleges and Universities.” Economics of Education Review, 30, no. 3 (2011): 480–492.

8. Jerome Karabel, The Chosen: The Hidden History of Admission and Exclusion at Harvard, Yale, and Princeton (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2005).

9. Barry J. Nalebuff and Ian Ayres, Why Not? How to Use Everyday Ingenuity to Solve Problems Big and Small (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2003); Steve Selvin, letter to the editor, American Statistician 29, no. 3 (1975): 67; Marilyn vos Savant, “Ask Marilyn,”Parade, December 2, 1990; Marilyn vos Savant, “Ask Marilyn,”Parade, September 8, 1990; Marilyn vos Savant, “Ask Marilyn,”Parade, February 17, 1991.

10. Avishalom Tor and Max H. Bazerman, “Focusing Failures in Competitive Environments: Explaining Decision Errors in the Monty Hall Game, the Acquiring a Company Game, and Multiparty Ultimatums,” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16 (2003): 353–374.

1. Mark Gimein, “ At Swoopo, Shopping’s Steep Spiral Into Addiction,”Washington Post. July 12, 2009, http://articles. washingtonpost.com/2009–07–12/business/368113841 members-bid-auction-bid-butler.

2. Martin Shubik, “The Dollar Auction Game: A Paradox in Noncooperative Behavior and Escalation,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 15, no. 1 (1971): 109–111.

3. Мои бывшие студенты вспомнят, что я сперва продавал на аукционе 20 долларов со ставкой в 1 доллар, но около 2005 года перешел на банкноты номиналом в 100 долларов.

4. Деньги я передаю в благотворительные фонды или жертвую на напитки для встреч бывших выпускников, но студенты во время аукционов этого не знают.

5. Gimein, «Swoopo».

6. Richard Thaler, “Paying a Price for the Thrill of the Hunt,” New York Times, November 14, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/15/business/economy/15view.html.

7. Ned Augenblick, “Consumer and Producer Behavior in the Market for Penny Auctions: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis,”December 2012, неопубликованная статья, http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/ned/Penny_Auction.pdf.

8. Harry Markopolos, No One Would Listen: A True Financial Thriller (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2010).

9. Diana B. Henriques, The Wizard of Lies: Bernie Madoff and the Death of Trust (New York: Times Books, 2011).

10. Markopolos, No One Would Listen.

11. Отчасти информация в этом разделе адаптирована из работы Дипака Малхотры (Deepak Malhotra)“Too Big to Trust: Conceptualizing and Managing Stakeholder Trust in the Post-Bailout Economy,” 2011, working paper, Harvard Business School.

12. Nicholas D. Kristof, “A Banker Speaks, with Regret,” New York Times, November 30, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/01/opinion/kristof-a-banker-speaks-with-regret.html.

1. Sheila McNulty, “BP Memo Criticises Company Leadership,”Financial Times, December 17, 2006.

2. Tony Hayward, “Entrepreneurial Spirit Needed.” Stanford Business School via Stanford University, May 12, 2009.

3. Clifford Krauss, “Oil Spill’s Blow to BP’s Image May Eclipse Costs,”New York Times, April 29, 2010.

4. Tim Webb, “BP Boss Admits Job on the Line over Gulf Oil Spill,”Guardian, May 13, 2010.

5. Greg Palkot, “Gulf Spill: BP Chief Talks,” FoxNews.com, May 18, 2010, http://liveshots.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/05/18/gulf-spill-bpchief-talks/.

6. “BP Chief Apologizes for ‘I’d Like My Life Back’ Comment,” AFP, June 2, 2010, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jTQVdQPfD7xEKyXtRlVNePp4eVMw.

7. “BP Chief Apologizes for ‘I’d Like My Life Back’ Comment.”

8. Suzanne Goldberg, “If He Was Working for Me I’d Sack Him’: Obama Turns Up Heat on BP Boss,” Guardian, June 8, 2010, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jun/08/bp-deepwater-horizon-obama.

9. Данный анализ не является политическим комментарием, это анализ неспособности фонда думать на шаг вперед в данной ситуации.

10. Pam Belluck, Jennifer Preston, and Gardiner Harris, “Cancer Group Backs Down on Cutting Off Planned Parenthood,” New York Times, February 3, 2012.

11. Editorial, “A Painful Betrayal,” New York Times, February 2, 2012.

12. George Akerlof, “The Market for Lemons: Qualitative Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 89 (1970): 488–500.

13. George A. Akerlof, “Writing the ‘The Market for “Lemons”’: A Personal and Interpretive Essay,” Nobelprize.org, November 14, 2003, http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel prizes/economics/laureates/2001/akerlof-article.html.

14. Max H. Bazerman and William F. Samuelson, “I Won the Auction but Don’t Want the Prize,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 27, no. 4 (1983): 618–634.

15. Bazerman and Samuelson, “I Won the Auction but Don’t Want the Prize.”

16. Eyal Ert, Stephanie Creary, and Max H. Bazerman, “Cynicism in Negotiation: When Communication Increases Buyers’ Skepticism,”2013. Harvard Business School, working paper.

1. Хотя все данные о магазинах Walmart, которые я использую, доступны в открытых источниках, следует отметить, что я был свидетелем-экспертом в деле Melvin v. Walmart, Inc.

2. Показания Марты Ландерс (Martha Landers), бывшего члена команды контроля качества Blitz и исполнительного ассистента генерального директора Blitz в 2012 году, в деле Карен Гено-Корнеги лично и от имени всех выгодоприобретателей от неправомерной гибели Мэтью Дилана Корнеги Плейнтиффа против Blitz U. S.A., Inc., Walmart, Inc. и Discovery Plastics, LLC.

3. Показания покупателя Walmart Родерика Стэкли (Roderick Stakley) в 2012 году в деле Карен Гено-Корнеги лично и от имени всех выгодоприобретателей от неправомерной гибели Мэтью Дилана Корнеги Плейнтиффа против Blitz U. S.A., Inc., Walmart, Inc. и Discovery Plastics, LLC.

4. Marla Felcher, “Protect Our Children… from Their Toys? Warning: Buy Toys at Your Own Risk,” Walmart Watch, http://walmartwatch.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/files/pdf/danger_for_sale.pdf, 7.

5. Renee Dudley and Arun Devnath, “Walmart Nixed Paying Bangladesh Suppliers to Fight Fire,” City Wire, December 5, 2012, http://thecitywire.com/node/25425.

6. Andrew Pollack, “Questcor Finds Profits, at $28,000 a Vial,” New York Times, December 29, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/30/business/questcor-finds-profit-for-acthar-drug-at-28000-a-vial.html?pagewanted=all&r=0.

7. Alex Berenson, “A Cancer Drug’s Big Price Rise Is Cause for Concern,”New York Times, March 12, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/12/business/12price.html?pagewanted= print&r=0.

8. Neeru Paharia, Karim S. Kassam, Joshua D. Greene, and Max H. Bazerman, “Dirty Work, Clean Hands: The Moral Psychology of Indirect Agency,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 109 (2009): 134–141.

9. См. Bazerman and Moore, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making.

10. David Segal, “Selling It with Extras, or Not at All,” New York Times, September 8, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/your-money/sales-incentives-at-staples-draw-complaints-the-haggler.html?pagewanted=all.

11. “Staples Complaint: Staples Refusing to Sell to Customers WhoWon’t Buy Their Service Plan!” My3cents.com, March 9, 2009, http://www.my3cents.com/showReview.cgi?id=50762.

12. Bazerman and Tenbrunsel, Blind Spots.

13. Denise Gellene, “Sears Drops Car Repair Incentives: Retailing. The Company Says ‘Mistakes Have Been Made’ in Its Aggressive Commission Program. But Some Sales Quotas Will Remain in Place,”Los Angeles Times, June 23, 1992, http://articles.latimes.com/1992–06–23/business/fi-900_1_sales-quotas.

14. Carolyn Chen, “Asians Too Smart for Their Own Good?” New York Times, December 29, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/20/opinion/asians-too-smart-for-their-own-good.html.

15. Thomas J. Espenshade and Alexandria Walton Radford, No Longer Separate, Not Yet Equal: Race and Class in Elite College Admission and Campus Life (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009).

16. “Fears of an Asian Quota in the Ivy League,” New York Times, December 19, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/12/19/fears-of-an-asian-quota-in-the-ivy-league.

17. John C. Brittain and Richard D. Kahlenberg, “When Wealth Trumps Merit,” New York Times, May 13, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/12/19/fears-of-an-asian-quota-in-the-ivy-league/legacy-admissions-favor-wealth-over-merit.

1. Eric Berger, “Keeping Its Head above Water,” Houston Chronicle, December 1, 2001, http://www.chron.com/news/nation-world/article/New-Orleans-faces-doomsday-in-hurricane-scenario-2017771.php.

2. Benjamin Alexander-Birch, “Washing Away,” Times-Picayune (New Orleans), June 23–27, 2002, http://www.nola.com/washingaway/.

3. Joel J. Bourne, “Gone with the Water,” National Geographic, October 2004.

4. “Overview of Governor Kathleen Babineaux Blanco’s Actions in Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina,» Response to the U. S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Document and Information Request, dated October 7, 2005 and to the U. S. House of Representatives Select Committee to Investigate the Preparation for and Response to Hurricane Katrina, December 2, 2005, 18.

5. Larry Irons, “Hurricane Katrina as a Predictable Surprise,” Homeland Security Affairs 1, no. 2 (2005): 4, http://www.hsaj.org/?article=1.2.7.

6. John S. Petterson, Laura D. Stanley, Edward Glazier, and James Philipp, “A Preliminary Assessment of Social and Economic Impacts Associated with Hurricane Katrina,” American Anthropologist 108, no.4 (2008): 643.

7. Petterson et al., “A Preliminary Assessment of Social and Economic Impacts Associated with Hurricane Katrina,”666.

8. Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins, Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004).

9. Bazerman and Watkins, Predictable Surprises.

10. Shelly E. Taylor, Positive Illusions: Creative Self-Deception and the Healthy Mind (New York: Basic Books, 1989); Shelly E. Taylor and Jonathon D. Brown, “Illusion and Well-being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health,” Psychological Bulletin 103, no. 2 (1988): 193–210.

11. David Dunning, Chip Heath, and Jerry M. Suls, “Flawed Self-Assessment: Implications for Health, Education, and Business,”Psychological Science in the Public Interest 5, no. 3 (2004): 69–106; Bazerman and Moore, Judgment in Managerial Decision Making; Bazerman and Watkins, Predictable Surprises.

12. Ritov and Baron, “Reluctance to Vaccinate.”

13. “Opening Statement of Chairman Tom Davis,”House Select Committee to Question Former FEMA Director Michael Brown, September 23, 2005, cited by Irons, Hurricane Katrina as a Predictable Surprise.”

14. Более подробно организационные причины неспособности реагировать на предсказуемые неожиданности обсуждаются в главе 5 книги Bazerman and Watkins, Predictable Surprises.

15. Bazerman and Watkins, Predictable Surprises.

16. Там же.

17. Там же.

18. Там же.

19. Michael Lewis, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine (New York: Norton, 2010).

20. Quoted in Lewis, The Big Short, 28.

21. Lewis, The Big Short, 108.

22. Там же.

1. Warren G. Bennis and Robert J. Thomas, Geeks and Geezers (Boston: Harvard Business School Publishing, 2002).

2. Richard E. Nisbett and Lee Ross, Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1980).

3. Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (New York: Norton, 2003).

4. Richard H. Thaler and Cass Sunstein, “Who’s on First?” New Republic, September 1, 2003, 27.

5. Richard Perez-Pena, “Oregon Looks at Way to Attend College Now and Repay State Later,” New York Times, July 3, 2013, http:/www.nytimes.com/2013/07/04/education/in-oregon-a-plan-to-eliminate-tuition-and-loans-at-state-colleges.html. Хотя закон прошел, в ходе его внедрения имели место многие сложности.

6. Tara Siegel Bernard, “Program Links Loans to Future Earnings,” New York Times, July 19, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/20/your-money/unusual-student-loan-programs-link-to-future-earnings.html?emc=eta1&r=0&pagewanted=all.

7. Barry J. Nalebuff and Ian Ayres, Why Not? How to Use Everyday Ingenuity to Solve Problems Big and Small (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2003).

8. Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo, “Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking,” Management Science 39 (1993): 17–31.

9. Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo, “Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking,” Management Science 39 (1993): 17–31.