Stanley Meisler, “First in 1763: Spain Lottery – Not Even War Stops It”, Los Angeles Times, December 30, 1977.

О баскетболе: Michael Patrick Allen, Sharon K. Panian, and Roy E. Lotz, “Managerial Succession and Organizational Performance: A Recalcitrant Problem Revisited”, Administrative Science Quarterly 24, no. 2 (June 1979): 167–80; о футболе: M. Craig Brown, “Administrative Succession and Organizational Performance: The Succession Effect”, Administrative Science Quarterly 27, no. 1 (March 1982): 1–16; о бейсболе: Oscar Grusky, “Managerial Succession and Organizational Effectiveness”, American Journal of Sociology 69, no. 1 (July 1963): 21–31, and William A. Gamson and Norman A. Scotch, “Scapegoating in Baseball”, American Journal of Sociology 70, no. 1 (July 1964): 69–72; об американском футболе: Ruud H. Koning, “An Econometric Evaluation of the Effect of Firing a Coach on Team Performance”, Applied Economics 35, no. 5 (March 2003): 555–64.

James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds (New York: Doubleday, 2004), pp. 218–19.

Armen Alchian, “Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory”, Journal of Political Economy 58, no. 3 (June 1950): 213.

Шведский психиатр. Изобрел названный его именем тест, заключающийся в интерпретации набора чернильных пятен различной конфигурации и цвета, имеющих определенный смысл для диагностики скрытых установок, побуждений, свойств характера. (Здесь и далее – прим. перев.)

Kerstin Preuschoff, Peter Bossaerts, and Steven R. Quartz, “Neural Differentiation of Expected Reward and Risk in Human Subcortical Structures”, Neuron 51 (August 3, 2006): 381–90.

Benedetto De Martino et al., “Frames, Biases, and Rational Decision-Making in the Human Brain”, Science 313 (August 4, 2006): 684–87.

Бертран Рассел, «Исследование значения и истины». Общ. науч. ред. и примеч Е. Е. Ледникова. – М.: Идея-Пресс: Дом интеллектуальной книги, 1999 г.

Matt Johnson and To m Hundt, “Hog Industry Targets State for Good Reason”, Vernon County (Wisconsin) Broadcaster, July 17, 2007.

Kevin McKean, “Decisions, Decisions”, Discover, June 1985, pp. 22–31.

David Oshinsky, “No Thanks, Mr. Nabokov”, New York Times Book Review, September 9, 2007.

Данные прессы о количестве отрицательных ответов на предложение о публикации этих рукописей несколько отличаются.

William Goldman, Adventures in the Screen Trade (New York: Warner Books, 1983), p. 41.

См. Arthur De Vany, Hollywood Economics (Abington, U.K.: Routledge, 2004).

William Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, 2nd ed. (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1957), p. 68. Обратите внимание на то, что ради упрощения Феллер в случае, когда ни один из оппонентов не получает преимущества, отдает главенство тому, кто оказался впереди в предыдущем испытании.

Leonard Mlodinow, “Meet Hollywood’s Latest Genius”, Los Angeles Times Magazine, July 2, 2006.

Variety – американский еженедельный журнал об индустрии развлечений, выходит с 1905 г.

Dave McNary, “Par Goes for Grey Matter”, Variety, January 2, 2005.

Ronald Grover, “Paramount’s Cold Snap: The Heat Is On”, BusinessWeek, November 21, 2003.

Dave McNary, “Parting Gifts: Old Regime’s Pics Fuel Paramount Rebound”, Variety, August 16, 2005.

Anita M. Busch, “Canton Inks Prod’n Pact at Warner’s”, Variety, August 7, 1997.

Отбивка мяча за пределы игрового поля над частью бейсбольного поля, ограниченной штрафными линиями первой и третьей баз, после которого отбивающий и его партнеры, находящиеся на базах, получают право пробежать по всем базам и вернуться в «дом».

“The Making of a Hero”, Time, September 29, 1961, p. 72. Бейсбольным ветераном был Роджерс Норнсби.

“Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris: The Photographic Essay”, Life, August 18, 1961, p. 62.

Для тех, кто не разбирается в бейсболе: база – это резиновая пластина, вделанная в землю, на которую игрок встает перед тем, как попытаться отбить мяч Для тех, кто в бейсболе разбирается: обратите внимание на то, что я включил в свое определение возможностей пропуски на базу (перемещение бьющего на первую базу после четырех неточно выполненных подач подающего – прим. перев.). При повторных подсчетах, с учетом лишь официальных выходов на биту, результат получается примерно таким же.

См. Stephen Jay Gould, “The Streak of Streaks”, New York Review of Books, August 18, 1988, pp. 8–12 (далее мы ознакомимся с ними подробнее). Очевидный и математически подробный анализ моделей с подбрасыванием монеты, применимый к спорту, упоминается в главе 2 книги, над которой в настоящее время трудятся Charles M. Grinstead, William P. Peterson, and J. Laurie Snell и чье рабочее название звучит следующим образом: Fat Chance; www.math.dartmouth.edu/~prob/prob/NEW/bestofchance.pdf

Показатель текущего состояния игрока: игрок «не в форме» или «в ударе», соответственно.

Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, eds., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982), pp. 90–98.

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment”, Psychological Review 90, no. 4 (October 1983): 293–315.

Craig R. Fox and Richard Birke, “Forecasting Trial Outcomes: Lawyers Assign Higher Probabilities to Possibilities That Are Described in Greater Detail”, Law and Human Behavior 26, no. 2 (April 2002): 159–73.

Перев. с греч. и ком. Д. Мордухай-Болтовского, ОГИЗ, М. Л., 1948 г.

Кость между большеберцовой и пяточной, у копытных – надкопытная кость, или бабка. На Руси игра так и называлась – «бабки».

Платон, «Диалоги Платона», перев. С. Маркиша, М. 1965 г.

Платон, «Теэтет», собр. Соч. в четырех томах. М., 1993 г.

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability”, Cognitive Psychology 5 (1973): 207–32.

Reid Hastie and Robyn M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology and Judgement of Decision Making (Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage, 2001), p. 87.

Robert M. Reyes, William C. Thompson, and Gordon H. Bower, “Judgmental Biases Resulting from Differing Availabilities of Arguments”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39, no. 1 (1980): 2–12.

Robert Kaplan, The Nothing That Is: A Natural History of Zero (London: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp. 15–17.

Cicero, quoted in Morris Kline, Mathematical Thought from Ancient to Modern Times (London: Oxford University Press, 1972), 1:179.

Morris Kline, Mathematics in Western Culture (London: Oxford University Press, 1953), p. 86.

Клайн, «Математическая мысль», с.178–179.

Cicero, quoted in Warren Weaver, Lady Luck (Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications, 1982), p. 53.

Cicero, quoted in F. N. David, Gods, Games and Gambling: A History of Probability and Statistical Ideas (Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications, 1998), pp. 24–26.

Cicero, quoted in Bart K. Holland, What Are the Chances? Voodoo Deaths, Office Gossip, and Other Adventures in Probability (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002), p. 24.

Cicero, quoted in Bart K. Holland, What Are the Chances? Voodoo Deaths, Office Gossip, and Other Adventures in Probability (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002), p. 25.

James Franklin, The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001), pp. 4, 8.

Quoted ibid., p. 13.

Quoted ibid., p. 14.

William C. Thompson, Franco Taroni, and Colin G. G. Aitken, “How the Probability of a False Positive Affects the Value of DNA Evidence”, Journal of Forensic Sciences 48, no. 1 (January 2003): 1–8.

Ibid., p. 2. The story is recounted in Bill Braun, “Lawyers Seek to Overturn Rape Conviction”, Tulsa World, November 22, 1996. See alsowww.innocenceproject.org. (Durham was released in 1997.)

People v. Collins, 68 Calif. 2d 319, 438 P.2d 33, 66 Cal. Rptr. 497 (1968).

Thomas Lyon, private communication.

Alan Wykes, Doctor Cardano: Physician Extraordinary (London: Frederick Muller, 1969). See also Oystein Ore, Cardano: The Gambling Scholar, with a translation of Cardano’s Book on Games of Chance by Sydney Henry Gould (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1953)

Marilyn vos Savant, “Ask Marilyn”, Parade, September 9, 1990.

Азуса – город в Калифорнии.

Bruce D. Burns and Mareike Wieth, “Causality and Reasoning: The Monty Hall Dilemma”, in Proceedings of the Twenty-fifth Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, ed. R. Alterman and D. Kirsh (Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2003), p. 198.

National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators–2002 (Arlington, Va.: National Science Foundation, 2002); http://www. nsf.gov/statistics/seind02/. See vol. 2, chap. 7, table 7-10.

Gary P. Posner, “Nation’s Mathematicians Guilty of Innumeracy”, Skeptical Inquirer 15, no. 4 (Summer 1991).

Bruce Schechter, My Brain Is Open: The Mathematical Journeys of Paul Erdös (New York: Touchstone, 1998), pp. 107–9.

Bruce Schechter, My Brain Is Open: The Mathematical Journeys of Paul Erdös (New York: Touchstone, 1998), pp. 189–90, 196-97.

John Tierney, “Behind Monty’s Doors: Puzzle, Debate and Answer?” New York Times, July 21, 1991.

Robert S. Gottfried, The Black Death: Natural and Human Disaster in Medieval Europe (New York: Free Press, 1985).

Gerolamo Cardano, quoted in Wykes, Doctor Cardano, p. 18.

Kline, Mathematical Thought, pp. 184–85, 259–60.

«Дорогая Эбби» – название известной колонки советов, начатой в 1956 г. Полин Филлипс, писавшей под псевдонимом Абигайль ван Бюрен.

“Oprah’s New Shape: How She Got It”, O, the Oprah Magazine, January 2003.

Lorraine J. Daston, Classical Probability in the Enlightenment (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1998), p. 97.

Marilyn vos Savant, “Ask Marilyn”, Parade, March 3, 1996, p. 14.

У машины четыре колеса, и если буквами ПП обозначить правое переднее колесо, ну и так далее, получится 16 возможных комбинаций ответов студентов. Если первый ответ из списка означает ответ студента № 1, а второй – ответ студента № 2, получатся следующие возможные совместные ответы: (ПП, ПП), (ПП, ЛП), (ПП, ПЗ), (ПП, ЛЗ), (ЛП, ПП), (ЛП, ЛП), (ЛП, ПЗ), (ЛП, ЛЗ), (ПЗ, ПП), (ПЗ, ЛП), (ПЗ, ПЗ), (ПЗ, ЛЗ), (ЛЗ, ПП), (ЛЗ, ЛП), (ЛЗ, ПЗ), (ЛЗ, ЛЗ). Из этих 16 комбинаций 4 совпадают: (ПП, ПП), (ЛП, ЛП), (ПЗ, ПЗ), (ЛЗ, ЛЗ). Таким образом, шансы равны 4 из 16, или 1 из 4.

Чакавский диалект распространен на островах и побережье Адриатического моря, большей части Истрии и часть северной Хорватии.

Martin Gardner, “Mathematical Games”, Scientific American, October 1959, pp. 180–82.

Jerome Cardan, The Book of My Life: De Vita Propia Liber, trans. Jean Stoner (Whitefish, Mont.: Kessinger, 2004), p. 35.

Cardano, quoted in Wykes, Doctor Cardano, p. 57.

Cardano, quoted ibid.

Cardano, quoted ibid., p. 172.

Bengt Ankarloo and Stuart Clark, eds., Witchcraft and Magic in Europe: The Period of the Witch Trials (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2002), pp. 99–104.

Meghan Collins, “Traders Ward Off Evil Spirits”, October 31, 2003, http://www.CNNMoney.com/2003/10/28/markets_trader_superstition/index.htm.

Henk Tijms, Understanding Probability: Chance Rules in Everyday Life (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), p. 16.

Henk Tijms, Understanding Probability: Chance Rules in Everyday Life (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), p. 80.

David, Gods, Games and Gambling, p. 65.

Blaise Pascal, quoted in Jean Steinmann, Pascal, trans. Martin Turnell (New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1962), p. 72.

Gilberte Pascal, quoted in Morris Bishop, Pascal: The Life of a Genius (1936; repr., New York: Greenwood Press, 1968), p. 47.

Gilberte Pascal, quoted in Morris Bishop, Pascal: The Life of a Genius (1936; repr., New York: Greenwood Press, 1968), p. 137.

Gilberte Pascal, quoted ibid., p. 135.

See A.W.F. Edwards, Pascal’s Arithmetical Triangle: The Story of a Mathematical Idea (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002).

Blaise Pascal, quoted in Herbert Westren Turnbull, The Great Mathematicians (New York: New York University Press, 1961), p. 131.

Blaise Pascal, quoted in Bishop, Pascal, p. 196.

Blaise Pascal, quoted in David, Gods, Games and Gambling, p. 252.

Bruce Martin, “Coincidences: Remarkable or Random?” Skeptical Inquirer 22, no. 5 (September/October 1998).

Holland, What Are the Chances? pp. 86–89.

Tijms, Understanding Probability, p. 53.

Закон Бенфорда или закон первой цифры гласит, что в таблицах чисел, основанных на данных источников из реальной жизни, цифра 1 на первом месте встречается гораздо чаще, чем все остальные (приблизительно в 30 % случаях). Более того, чем больше цифра, тем меньше вероятности, что она будет стоять в числе на первом месте.

Scott Kinney, “Judge Sentences Kevin L. Lawrence to 20 Years Prison in Znetix/HMC Stock Scam”, Washington State Department of Financial Institutions, press release, November 25, 2003; http://wwwdfiwagov/sd/kevin_laurence_sentencehtm.

Interview with Darrell Dorrell, August 1, 2005.

Lee Berton, “He’s Got Their Number: Scholar Uses Math to Foil Financial Fraud”, Wall Street Journal, July 10, 1995.

Charles Sanders Peirce, Max Harold Fisch, and Christian J. W. Kloesel, Writings of Charles S. Peirce: A Chronological Edition (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1982), p. 427.

Rand Corporation, A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates (1955; repr., Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand, 2001), pp. ix – x. See also Lola L. Lopes, “Doing the Impossible: A Note on Induction and the Experience of Randomness”, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 8, no. 6 (November 1982): 626–36.

The account of Joseph Jagger (sometimes spelled Jaggers) is from John Grochowski, “House Has a Built-in Edge When Roulette Wheel Spins”, Chicago Sun-Times, February 21, 1997.

Более подробные сведения о семье Бернулли и жизни Якоба: E. S. Pearson, ed., The History of Statistics in the 17th and 18th Centuries against the Changing Background of Intellectual, Scientific and Religious Thought: Lectures by Karl Pearson Given at University College, London, during the Academic Sessions 1921–1933 (New York: Macmillan, 1978), pp. 221–37; J. O. Fleckenstein, “Johann und Jakob Bernoulli”, in Elemente der Mathematik, Beihefte zur Zeitschrift, no. 6 (Basel, 1949); and Stephen Stigler, “The Bernoullis of Basel”, Journal of Econometrics 75, no.1 (1996): 7–13.

Quoted in Pearson, The History of Statistics in the 17th and 18th Centuries, p. 224.

Stephen Stigler, The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900 (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1986), p. 65.

Pearson, The History of Statistics in the 17th and 18th Centuries, p. 226.

William H. Cropper, The Great Physicists: The Life and Times of Leading Physicists from Galileo to Hawking (London: Oxford University Press, 2001), p. 31.

Johann Bernoulli, quoted in Pearson, The History of Statistics in the 17th and 18th Centuries, p. 232.

Это зависит от того, что вы считаете «современной концепцией». Я соглашаюсь с определением Ханкеля 1871 г, подробно изложенным здесь: Gert Schubring, Conflicts between Generalization, Rigor, and Intuition: Number Concepts Underlying the Development of Analysis in 17th–19th Century France and Germany (New York: Springer, 2005), pp. 22–32.

David Freedman, Robert Pisani, and Roger Purves, Statistics, 3rd ed. (New York: W. W. Norton, 1998), pp. 274–75.

Цитата Хэкинга: Ian Hacking, The Emergence of Probability (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1975), p. 143. Цитата Бернулли: David, Gods, Games and Gambling, p. 136.

Дискуссия на тему того, что именно доказал Бернулли: Stigler, The History of Statistics, pp. 63–78, and Ian Hacking, The Emergence of Probability, pp. 155–65.

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers”, Psychological Bulletin 76, no. 2 (1971): 105–10.

Jakob Bernoulli, quoted in L. E. Maistrov, Probability Theory: A Historical Sketch, trans. Samuel Kotz (New York: Academic Press, 1974), p. 68.

Stigler, The History of Statistics, p. 77.

E. T. Bell, Men of Mathematics (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1937), p. 134.

The account of the Harvard student is from Hastie and Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, pp. 320–21.

Этот вариант я слышал от Марка Хиллери с факультета физики колледжа Хантера, Городской университет Нью-Йорка, который в свою очередь узнал о нем во время поездки в Братиславу, Словакия.

Quoted in Stigler, The History of Statistics, p. 123.

Quoted in Stigler, The History of Statistics, p. 121–131.

U.S. Social Security Administration, “Popular Baby Names: Popular Names by Birth Year; Popularity in 1935”, http://www.ssa.gov/cgibin/popularnames.cgi.

Division of HIV/AIDS, Center for Infectious Diseases, HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report (Atlanta: Centers for Disease Control, January 1990). Я произвел подсчеты на основании предоставленных статистических данных, однако помимо этого воспользовался еще кое-какими сведениями. В частности, взятыми из примеров заражения СПИДом, не ВИЧ-инфекцией, однако это никак не сказывается на цели – проиллюстрировать идею.

Если быть точным, вероятность того, что А произойдет, если произойдет В, равна вероятности того, что В произойдет, если произойдет А, помноженной на поправочный коэффициент, который уравнивает между собой вероятность А и вероятность В.

Gerd Gigerenzer, Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2002), pp. 40–44.

Donald A. Barry and LeeAnn Chastain, “Inferences About Testosterone Abuse Among Athletes”, Chance 17, no. 2 (2004): 5–8.

John Batt, Stolen Innocence (London: Ebury Press, 2005).

Stephen J. Watkins, “Conviction by Mathematical Error? Doctors and Lawyers Should Get Probability Theory Right”, BMJ 320 (January 1, 2000): 2–3.

“Royal Statistical Society Concerned by Issues Raised in Sally Clark Case”, Royal Statistical Society, London, news release, October 23, 2001; http://www.rssorg.uk/PDF/RSS%20Statement%20regarding%20statistical%20issues%20in%20the%20Sally%20Clark%20case,%20October%2023rd%202001.pdf.

Ray Hill, “Multiple Sudden Infant Deaths – Coincidence or beyond Coincidence?” Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology 18, no. 5 (September 2004): 320–26.

Quoted in Alan Dershowitz, Reasonable Doubts: The Criminal Justice System and the O. J. Simpson Case (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), p. 101.

Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Uniform Crime Reports”, http:// www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm.

Alan Dershowitz, The Best Defense (New York: Vintage, 1983), p. xix.

Pierre-Simon de Laplace, quoted in James Newman, ed., The World of Mathematics (Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications, 1956): 2:1323.

Sarah Kershaw and Eli Sanders, “Recounts and Partisan Bickering Bring Election Fatigue to Washington Voters”, New York Times, December 26, 2004; and Timothy Egan, “Trial for Governor’s Seat Set to Start in Washington”, New York Times, May 23, 2005.

Jed Z. Buchwald, “Discrepant Measurements and Experimental Knowledge in the Early Modern Era”, Archive for History of Exact Sciences 60, no. 6 (November 2006): 565–649.

Eugene Frankel, “J. B. Biot and the Mathematization of Experimental Physics in Napoleonic France”, in Historical Studies in the Physical Sciences, ed. Russell McCormmach (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1977).

Charles Coulston Gillispie, ed., Dictionary of Scientific Biography (New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1981), p. 85.

Дискуссию на тему ошибок радиолокаторов смотрите: Nicole Weisensee Egan, “Takin’ Aim at Radar Guns”, Philadelphia Daily News, March 9, 2004.

Charles T. Clotfelter and Jacob L. Vigdor, “Retaking the SAT” (working paper SAN01-20, Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, N.C., July 2001).

Eduardo Porter, “Jobs and Wages Increased Modestly Last Month”, New York Times, September 2, 2006.

Gene Epstein on “Mathemagicians”, On the Media, WNYC radio, broadcast August 25, 2006.

Legene Quesenberry et al., “Assessment of the Writing Component within aUniversity General Education Program”, November 1, 2000; .

Kevin Saunders, “Report to the Iowa State University Steering Committee on the Assessment of ISU Comm-English 105 Course Essays”, September 2004; (accessed 2005; site now discontinued).

University of Texas, Office of Admissions, “Inter-rater Reliability of Holistic Measures Used in the Freshman Admissions Process of the University of Texas at Austin”, February 22, 2005; http://www.utexas.edu/student/admissions/research/Inter-raterReliability2005.pdf.

Emily J. Shaw and Glenn B. Milewski, “Consistency and Reliability in the Individualized Review of College Applicants”, College Board, Office of Research and Development, Research Notes RN-20 (October 2004): 3; http://www.collegeboardcom/research/pdf/RN-20.pdf.

Gary Rivlin, “In Vino Veritas”, New York Times, August 13, 2006.

William James, The Principles of Psychology (New York: Henry Holt, 1890), p. 509.

Вкус белковых веществ, «пятый вкус», традиционно используемый в японской и других культурах Дальнего Востока. Ощущение «умами» создают глутамат и другие аминокислоты.

Robert Frank and Jennifer Byram, “Taste-Smell Interactions Are Tastant and Odorant Dependent”, Chemical Senses 13 (1988): 445–55.

A. Rapp, “Natural Flavours of Wine: Correlation between Instrumental Analysis and Sensory Perception”, Fresenius’ Journal of Analytic Chemistry 337, no. 7 (January 1990): 777–85.

D. Laing and W. Francis, “The Capacity of Humans to Identify Odors in Mixtures”, Physiology and Behavior 46, no. 5 (November 1989): 809–14; and D. Laing et al., “The Limited Capacity of Humans to Identify the Components of Taste Mixtures and Taste-Odour Mixtures”, Perception 31, no. 5 (2002): 617–35.

For the rosé study, see Rose M. Pangborn, Harold W. Berg, and Brenda Hansen, “The Influence of Color on Discrimination of Sweetness in Dry Table-Wine”, American Journal of Psychology 76, no. 3 (September 1963): 492–95. For the anthocyanin study, see G. Morrot, F. Brochet, and D. Dubourdieu, “The Color of Odors”, Brain and Language 79, no. 2 (November 2001): 309–20.

Hilke Plassman, John O’Doherty, Baba Shia, and Antonio Rongel, “Marketing Actions Can Modulate Neural Representations of Experienced Pleasantness”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, January 14, 2008; http://www.pnas.org.

M. E. Woolfolk, W. Castellan, and C. Brooks, “Pepsi versus Coke: Labels, Not Tastes, Prevail”, Psychological Reports 52 (1983): 185–86.

M. Bende and S. Nordin, “Perceptual Learning in Olfaction: Professional Wine Tasters Versus Controls”, Physiology and Behavior 62, no. 5 (November 1997): 1065–70.

Gregg E. A. Solomon, “Psychology of Novice and Expert Wine Talk”, American Journal of Psychology 103, no. 4 (Winter 1990): 495–517.

Rivlin, “In Vino Veritas.”

Rivlin, “In Vino Veritas.”

Hal Stern, “On the Probability of Winning a Football Game”, American Statistician 45, no. 3 (August 1991): 179–82.

The graph is from Index Funds Advisors, “Index Funds.com: Take the Risk Capacity Survey”, http://www.indexfunds3.com/step3page2.php, where it is credited to Walter Good and Roy Hermansen, Index Your Way to Investment Success (New York: New York Institute of Finance, 1997). The performance of 300 mutual fund managers was tabulated for ten years (1987–1996), based on the Morningstar Principia database.

Polling Report, “President Bush – Overall Job Rating”, http://pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm.

“Poll: Bush Apparently Gets Modest Bounce”, CNN, September 8, 2004, http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/06/presidential.poll/index.html.

“Harold von Braunhut”, Telegraph, December 23, 2003; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/12/24/db2403.xml.

James J. Fogarty, “Why Is Expert Opinion on Wine Valueless?” (discussion paper 02.17, Department of Economics, University of Western Australia, Perth, 2001)

Stigler, The History of Statistics, p. 143.

Holland, What Are the Chances? p. 51.

Это лишь приблизительные расчеты, в основе которых лежат последние данные по американской статистике. Смотрите: U.S. Social Security Administration, “Actuarial Publications: Period Life Table.” Наиболее свежие данные находятся по адресу: http://www.ssagov/OACT /STATS/table4c6.html.

Immanuel Kant, quoted in Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking: 1820–1900 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1988), p. 51.

U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, “Licensed Drivers, Vehicle Registrations and Resident Population”, http://wwwfhwa.dot.gov/policy/ohim/hs03/htm/dlchrt.htm.

U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, “Motor Vehicle Safety Data”, http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/2002/html/table_02_17.html.

“The Domesday Book”, History Magazine, October/November 2001.

For Graunt’s story, see Hacking, The Emergence of Probability, pp. 103–9; David, Gods, Games and Gambling, pp. 98–109; and Newman, The World of Mathematics, 3:1416–18.

Hacking, The Emergence of Probability, p. 102.

Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, p. 19.

For Graunt’s original table, see Hacking, The Emergence of Probability, p. 108. For the current data, see World Health Organization, “Life Tables for WHO Member States”, http://www.who.int/whosis/database/life_tables/life_tables.cfm. The figures quoted were taken from abridged tables and rounded.

Ian Hacking, The Taming of Chance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), p. vii.

Статистика (англ.)

Статистика (нем.)

H. A. David, “First (?) Occurrence of Common Terms in Statistics and Probability”, in Annotated Readings in the History of Statistics, ed. H. A. David and A.W.F. Edwards (New York: Springer, 2001), appendix B and pp. 219–28.

Noah Webster, American Dictionary of the English Language (1828; facsimile of the 1st ed., Chesapeake, Va.: Foundation for American Christian Education, 1967).

The material on Quételet is drawn mainly from Stigler, The History of Statistics, pp. 161–220; Stephen Stigler, Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1999), pp. 51–66; and Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, pp. 100–9.

Louis Menand, The Metaphysical Club (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2001), p. 187.

Holland, What Are the Chances? pp. 41–42.

David Yermack, “Good Timing: CEO Stock Option Awards and Company News Announcements”, Journal of Finance 52, no. 2 (June 1997): 449–76; and Erik Lie, “On the Timing of CEO Stock Option Awards”, Management Science 51, no. 5 (May 2005): 802–12. See also Charles Forelle and James Bandler, “The Perfect Payday – Some CEOs Reap Millions by Landing Stock Options When They Are Most Valuable: Luck – or Something Else?” Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2006.

Justin Wolfers, “Point Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball”, American Economic Review 96, no. 2 (May 2006): 279–83.

Stern, “On the Probability of Winning a Football Game.”

David Leonhardt, “Sad Suspicions about Scores in Basketball”, New York Times, March 8, 2006.

Richard C. Hollinger et al., National Retail Security Survey: Final Report (Gainesville: Security Research Project, Department of Sociology and Center for Studies in Criminal Law, University of Florida, 2002–2006).

Adolphe Quételet, quoted in Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, p. 54.

Quételet, quoted in Menand, The Metaphysical Club, p. 187.

Jeffrey Kluger, “Why We Worry about the Things We Shouldn’t. and Ignore the Things We Should”, Time, December 4, 2006, pp. 65–71.

Gerd Gigerenzer, Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989), p. 129.

Menand, The Metaphysical Club, p. 193.

De Vany, Hollywood Economics; see part IV, “A Business of Extremes.”

See Derek William Forrest, Francis Galton: The Life and Work of a Victorian Genius (New York: Taplinger, 1974); Jeffrey M. Stanton, “Galton, Pearson, and the Peas: A Brief History of Linear Regression for Statistics Instructors”, Journal of Statistics Education 9, no. 3 (2001); and Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, pp. 129–46.

Francis Galton, quoted in Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, p. 130.

Peter Doskoch, “The Winning Edge”, Psychology Today, November/ December 2005, pp. 44–52.

Тайгер Вудс – известный игрок в гольф.

Deborah J. Bennett, Randomness (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1998), p. 123.

Abraham Pais, The Science and Life of Albert Einstein (London: Oxford University Press, 1982), p. 17; see also the discussion on p. 89.

On Brown and the history of Brownian motion, see D. J. Mabberley, Jupiter Botanicus: Robert Brown of the British Museum (Braunschweig, Germany, and London: Verlag von J. Cramer / Natural History Museum, 1985); Brian J. Ford, “Brownian Movement in Clarkia Pollen: A Reprise of the First Observations”, Microscope 40, no. 4 (1992): 235–41; and Stephen Brush, “A History of Random Processes. I. Brownian Movement from Brown to Perrin”, Archive for History of Exact Sciences 5, no. 34 (1968).