VI. От империи к Кимерике
i Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman, ‘Dreaming with the BRICs: The Path to 2050’, Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper, 99 (1.10.2003). См. также: Jim O’Neill, ‘Building Better Global Economic BRICs’, Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper, 66 (30.11.2001); Jim O’Neill, Dominic Wilson, Roopa Purushothaman and Anna Stupnytska, ‘How Solid are the BRICs?’, Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper, 134 (1.12.2005).
2 Dominic Wilson and Anna Stupnytska, ‘The N-n: More than an Acronym’, Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper, 153 (28.3.2007).
3 Goldman Sachs Global Economics Group, BRICs and Beyond (London, 2007), особенно стр. 45–72, 103–108.
4 Этот аргумент приводится Кеннетом Померанцем, см.: Kenneth Pomeranz, The Great Divergence: China, Europe and the Making of the Modern World Economy (Princeton/Oxford, 2000). Некоторые ученые оценивают положение Китая в 1700 году более сдержанно, см. например: Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective (Paris, 2001).
5 Подсчитано на основе оценок валового внутреннего продукта на душу населения, см.: Maddison, World Economy, table В-21.
6 Pomeranz, Great Divergence.
7 Наиболее важные из недавних работ на эту тему: Eric Jones, The European Miracle: Environments, Economies and Geopolitics in the History of Europe and Asia (Cambridge, 1981); David S. Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: Why Some are So Rich and Some So Poor (New York, 1998); Joel Mokyr, The Gifts of Athena: Historical Origins of the Knowledge Economy (Princeton, 2002); Gregory Clark, A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Princeton, 2007).
8 William N. Goetzmann, ‘Fibonacci and the Financial Revolution’, NBER Working Paper 10352 (March 2004).
9 William N. Goetzmann, Andrey D. Ukhov and Ning Zhu, ‘China and the World Financial Markets, 1870–1930: Modern Lessons from Historical Globalization’, Economic History Review (forthcoming).
10 Nicholas Crafts, ‘Globalisation and Growth in the Twentieth Century’, International Monetary Fund Working Paper, 00/44 (март 2000). См. также: Richard E. Baldwin and Philippe Martin, ‘Two Waves of Globalization: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences’, NBER Working Paper 6904 (January 1999).
11 Barry R. Chiswick and Timothy J. Hatton, ‘International Migration and the Integration of Labor Markets’, in Michael D. Bordo, Alan M. Taylor and Jeffrey G. Williamson (eds.), Globalization in Historical Perspective (Chicago, 2003). Pp. 65-120.
12 Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor, ‘Globalization and Capital Markets’, in Michael D. Bordo, Alan M. Taylor and Jeffrey G.
Williamson (eds.), Globalization in Historical Perspective (Chicago, 2003). P. i/3ff.
13 Clark, Farewell, chs. 13, 14.
14 David M. Rowe, ‘The Tragedy of Liberalism: How Globalization Caused the First World War’, Security Studies, 14, 3 (Spring 2005). Pp. 1-41.
15 См., к примеру: Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World (New York, 2008) и Parag Khanna, The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order (London, 2008).
16 Jim Rogers, A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market (New York, 2007).
17 Robert Blake, Jardine Matheson: Traders of the Far East (London, 1999). P. 91. См. также: Alain Le Pichon, China Trade and Empire: Jardine, Matheson & Co. and the Origins of British Rule in Hong Kong, 1827-184} (Oxford/New York, 2006).
18 Rothschild Archive London, RFamFD/i3A/i; 13B/1; 13C/1; 13D/1; 13D/2; 13/E.
19 Henry Lowenfeld, Investment: An Exact Science (London, 1909). P. 61.
20 John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace (London, 1919), ch. 1.
21 Maddison, World Economy, table 2-26a.
22 Lance E. Davis and R. A. Huttenback, Mammon and the Pursuit of Empire: The Political Economy of British Imperialism, 1860–1912 (Cambridge, 1988). P. 46.
23 Ranald Michie, ‘Reversal or Change? The Global Securities Market in the 20th Century’, New Global Studies (forthcoming).
24 Obstfeld and Taylor, ‘Globalization’; Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick, ‘The Empire Effect: The Determinants of Country Risk in the First Age of Globalization, 1880–1913 \ Journal of Economic History, 66, 2 (June 2006). Но обратите внимание и на работу: Michael А. Clemens and Jeffrey Williamson, ‘Wealth Bias in the First Global Capital Market Boom, 1870–1913’, Economic Journal, 114, 2 (2004). Pp. 304–337.
25 Классический труд: Michael Edelstein, Overseas Investment in the Age of High Imperialism: The United Kingdom, 1850–1914 (New York, 1982).
26 Michael Edelstein, ‘Imperialism: Cost and Benefit’, in Roderick Floud and Donald McCloskey (eds.), The Economic History of Britain since 1700, vol. II (2nd edn., Cambridge, 1994). Pp. 173–216.
27 John Maynard Keynes, ‘Foreign Investment and National Advantage’, in Donald Moggridge (ed.), The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. XIX (London, 1981). Pp. 275–284.
28 Idem, Advice to Trustee Investors’. Pp. 202–206.
29 Подсчитано на основе данных в Irving Stone, The Global Export of Capital from Great Britain, 1865–1914 (London, 1999).
30 Весьма полезный фондовый индекс для шанхайской биржи с 1870 по 1940 год содержится на сайте http://icfsom.yale.edu/sse/
31 Michael Bordo and Hugh Rockoff, ‘The Gold Standard as a “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval’”, Journal of Economic History, 56, 2 (June 1996). Pp. 389–428.
32 Marc Flandreau and Frederic Zumer, The Making of Global Tinance, 1880–1913 (Paris, 2004).
33 Ferguson and Schularick, ‘Empire Effect’. Pp. 283–312.
34 Подробнее эта тема раскрывается в статье: Niall Ferguson, ‘Political Risk and the International Bond Market between the 1848 Revolution and the Outbreak of the First World War’, Economic History Review, 59, 1 (February 2006). Pp. 70-112.
35 Jean de [Ivan] Bloch, Is War Now Impossible? trans. R. C. Long (London, 1899). P. XVII.
36 Norman Angell, The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power in Nations to their Economic and Social Advantage (London, 1910). P. 31.
37 Цитата взята из: James J. Sheehan, Where Have all the Soldiers Gone?
38 О. M. W Sprague, ‘The Crisis of 1914 in the United States’, American Economic Review, 5, 3 (1915). Pp. 505ff.
39 Brendan Brown, Monetary Chaos in Europe: The End of an Era (London/New York, 1988). Pp. 1-34.
40 John Maynard Keynes, ‘War and the Financial System’, Economic Journal, 24, 9j (1914). Pp. 460–486.
41 E. Victor Morgan, Studies in British Financial Policy, 1914–1915 (London, 1952). Pp. 3-11.
42 Ibid., p. 27. См. также: Teresa Seabourne, ‘The Summer of 1914’, in Forrest Capie and Geoffrey E. Wood (eds.), Financial Crises and the World Banking System (London, 1986). Pp. 78, 88.
43 Sprague, ‘Crisis of 1914’. P. 532.
44 Morgan, Studies. P. 19.
45 Seabourne, ‘Summer of 1914’. Pp. 8off.
46 См. (из последних работ): William L. Silber, When Washington Shut Down Wall Street: The Great Financial Crisis of 1914 and the Origins of America's Monetary Supremacy (Princeton, 2007).
47 Morgan, Studies. Pp. 12–23.
48 David Kynaston, The City of London, vol. Ill: Illusions of Gold, 1914–1945 (London, 1999). P. 5.
49 Подсчитано на основе разрозненных упоминаний о ценах в газете The Times между августом и декабрем 1914 года.
50 Kynaston, City of London. P. 5.
51 Подробнее см.: Niall Ferguson, ‘Earning from History: Financial Markets and the Approach of World Wars’, Brookings Papers in Economic Activity (forthcoming).
52 Cm.: Lyndon Moore and Jakub Kaluzny, ‘Regime Change and Debt Default: The Case of Russia, Austro-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire following World War One’, Explorations in Economic History, 42 (2005). Pp. 237–258.
53 Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor, ‘The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run’, in Michael D. Bordo, Claudia Goldin and Eugene N. White (eds.), The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century (Chicago, 1998). Pp. 353–402.
54 Rawi Abdelal, Capital Rules: The Construction of Global Finance (Cambridge, MA./London, 2007). P. 45.
55 Ibid., p. 46.
56 Greg Behrman, The Most Noble Adventure: The Marshall Plan and the Time when America Helped Save Europe (New York, 2007).
57 Obstfeld and Taylor, ‘Globalization and Capital Markets’. P. 129.
58 Cm.: William Easterly, The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics (Cambridge, MA., 2002).
59 Michael Bordo, ‘The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview’, in idem and Barry Eichengreen (eds.), A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform (Chicago / London, 1993). Pp. 3-98.
60 Christopher S. Chiwis, ‘Charles de Gaulle, Jacques Rueff and French International Monetary Policy under Bretton Woods’, Journal of Contemporary History, 41, 4 (2006). Pp. 701–720.
61 Интервью с Эми Гудмен: http://www.democracynow.org/article. plfsid=04/11/09/1526251.
62 John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man (New York, 2004).P. xi.
63 Joseph E. Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents (New York, 2002). Pp. 12, 14, 15, 17.
64 Abdelal, Capital Rules. Pp. 50, 57–75.
65 Paul Krugman, The Return of Depression Economics (London, 1999).
66 ‘The Fund Bites Back’, The Economist, 4.7.2002.
67 Kenneth Rogoff, ‘The Sisters at 60", The Economist, 22.7.2004. См. также: ‘Not Even a Cat to Rescue’, The Economist, 20.4.2006.
68 См. классический труд: Fritz Stern, Gold and Iron: Bismarck, Bleichroder and the Building of the German Empire (Harmondsworth, 1987).
69 George Soros, The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market (New York, 1987). Pp. 27–30.
70 Robert Slater, Soros: The Life, Times and Trading Secrets of the World's Greatest Investor (New York, 1996). P. 48.
71 George Soros, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crash of 2008 and What It Means (New York, 2008). P. x.
72 Slater, Soros. P. 78.
73 Ibid., pp. 105, i07ff.
74 Ibid., p. 172.
75 Ibid., pp. 177, 182, 188.
76 Ibid., p. 10.
77 Ibid., p. 159.
78 Nicholas Dunbar, Inventing Money: The Story of Long-Term Capital Management and the Legends Behind It (New York, 2000). P. 92.
79 Dunbar, Inventing Money. Pp. 168–173.
80 Andre F. Perold, ‘Long-Term Capital Management, L.P. (A)’, Harvard Business School Case 9-200-007 (5.11.1999). P. 2.
81 Ibid., p. 13.
82 Ibid., p. 16.
83 История финансовых теорий, связанных с гипотезой эффективного рынка, рассказана в Peter Bernstein, Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street (New York, 1993).
84 Dunbar, Inventing Money. P. 178.
85 Roger Lowenstein, When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management (New York, 2000). P. 126.
86 Perold, ‘Long-Term Capital Management. P. (A)’. Pp. 11, 17.
87 Lowenstein, When Genius Failed. P. 127.
88 Andre F. Perold, ‘Long-Term Capital Management, L.R (B)’, Harvard Business School Case 9-200-08 (27.10.1999). P. 1.
89 Lowenstein, When Genius Failed. Pp. 133–138.
90 Ibid., p. 144.
91 Этим со мной поделился Андре Стерн, который также вкладывал деньги в IFF СМ.
92 Lowenstein, When Genius Failed. P. 147.
93 Andre F. Perold, ‘Long-Term Capital Management, L.P. (C)’, Harvard Business School Case 9–2.00–09 (5.11.1999). Pp. 1, 3.
94 Idem, ‘Long-Term Capital Management, L.P. (D)’, Harvard Business School Case 9-200-10 (4.10.2004). P. 1. Подготовленные Перо задания для студентов – образец для подражания.
95 Lowenstein, When Genius Failed. P. 149.
96 ‘All Bets Are Off: How the Salesmanship and Brainpower Failed at Long-Term Capital’, Wall Street Journal, 16.11.1998.
97 По этому поводу см.: Peter Bernstein, Capital Ideas Evolving (New York, 2007).
98 Donald MacKenzie, ‘Long-Term Capital Management and the Sociology of Arbitrage’, Economy and Society, 32, 3 (August 2003).P. 374-
99 Ibid., passim.
100 Ibid., p. 365.
101 Franklin R. Edwards, ‘Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13, 2 (Spring 1999). P. 192. См. также: Stephen J. Brown, William N. Goetzmann and Roger G. Ibbotson, ‘Offshore Hedge Funds: Survival and Performance, 1989–1995’, Journal of Business, 72, 1 (January 1999), Pp. 91-117.
102 Harry Markowitz, ‘New Frontiers of Risk: The 360 Degree Risk Manager for Pensions and Nonprofits’, The Bank of New York Thought Leadership White Paper (October 2005). P. 6.
103 ‘Hedge Podge’, The Economist, 16.2.2008.
104 ‘Rolling In It’, The Economist, 16.11.2006.
105 John Kay, ‘Just Think, the Fees You Could Charge Buffett’, Financial Times, 11.3.2008.
106 Stephanie Baum, Top 100 Hedge Funds have 75 % of Industry Assets’, Financial News, 21.5.2008.
107 Dean P. Foster and H. Peyton Young, ‘Hedge Fund Wizards’, Economists' Voice (февраль 2008). P. 2.
108 Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick, “Chimerica” and Global Asset Markets’, International Finance 10, 3 (2007). Pp. 215–239.
109 Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber, An Essay on the Revived Bretton-Woods System’, NBER Working Paper 9971 (September 2003).
110 Ben Bernanke, ‘The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit’, Homer Jones Lecture, St Louis, Missouri (15.4.2005).
111 ‘From Mao to the Mall’, The Economist, 16.2.2008.
112 О критике политики ФРС в последнее время см.: Paul A. Volcker, ‘Remarks at a Luncheon of the Economic Club of New York’ (8.4.2008). По мнению Волкера, ФРС предприняла меры, “находящиеся на самой грани ее компетенции, законной и неписаной”.
113 См., в частности: Jamil Anderlini, ‘Beijing Looks at Foreign Fields in Plan to Guarantee Food Supplies’, Financial Times, 9.5.2008.
114 Можно предположить, что, не случись Первой мировой войны, немецкая доля на мировом экспортном рынке превысила бы британскую к 1926 году: Hugh Neuburger and Houston H. Stokes, ‘The Anglo-German Trade Rivalry, 1887–1913: A Counterfactual Outcome and Its Implications’, Social Science History, 3, 2 (Winter 1979). Pp. 187–201.
115 Aaron L. Friedberg, The Future of U.S.-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable?’, International Security, 30, 2 (Fall 2005). Pp. 7-45.
116 В среднем сегодняшние исполнительные директоры Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley и JP Morgan начали свою карьеру чуть меньше 25,5 года назад.
